The clock is ticking on the 2023 rookie class.
By 5:00 pm CT on Monday, October 19, 16 first-round picks still have a chance to lock in rookie scale extensions with their current teams. If they don’t get new deals done by then, they’ll be headed toward restricted free agency next year after finishing out the season on their current contracts and then receiving a qualifying offer in 2027.
Five players from that class have already beaten the deadline and cashed in this offseason. The new contracts begin in 2027/28, and the list is headlined by Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs, who landed a five-year maximum-salary extension projected to be worth $255.2MM. Amen Thompson followed with a five-year, $208MM deal from the Rockets.
Keyonte George reached a five-year agreement with the Jazz worth $157.5MM, with a base value of $155MM and $2.5MM in incentives. Ausar Thompson signed for five years and $155MM with the Pistons, while Brandin Podziemski got a five-year, $110MM deal from the Warriors that includes a fifth-year mutual option.
That leaves a sizable group still in play before Monday’s cutoff.
The eligible players are Anthony Black of the Magic, Noah Clowney of the Nets, Bilal Coulibaly of the Wizards, Gradey Dick of the Clippers, Scoot Henderson of the Trail Blazers, Taylor Hendricks of the Grizzlies, Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the Bucks, Dereck Lively II of the Mavericks, Brandon Miller of the Hornets, Kris Murray of the Grizzlies, Marcus Sasser of the Mavericks, Brice Sensabaugh of the Jazz, Ben Sheppard of the Pacers, Julian Strawther of the Nuggets, Jarace Walker of the Pacers and Cason Wallace of the Thunder.
Among that group, Brandon Miller has been viewed as the strongest bet to land a big extension, with Podziemski and Wallace also drawing attention. Luke Adams ranked the remaining candidates from least to most likely to sign, putting Miller at No. 1 and Podziemski at No. 2 before Podziemski ultimately signed last week.
Wallace was No. 3 on that list, with Black coming in at No. 4.
Miller’s number has been a talking point. When I examined his extension case on Oct.
4, I speculated that a five-year deal in the $170-190MM range could make sense. Luke Adams went a step further, saying he wouldn’t be surprised if the Hornets pushed the contract close to the $208MM Amen Thompson got from Houston.
Jaquez has also been a point of discussion. Luke said he believed it would take at least $20MM per year to get an extension done, while I thought the former UCLA star might land closer to $15-19MM annually when I looked at his case. Jaquez was No. 5 on Luke’s list.
Black is another player to watch, but recent reporting has complicated that picture. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst wrote Friday morning that the Magic have been unwilling to give Black $22MM per year, the same figure Podziemski received from Golden State.
Not every 2023 first-rounder is eligible for an extension, though. Some of the players from that draft are excluded for the reasons noted in the source article.
In Other News...
Magic Face A Costly Anthony Black Decision As Pressure Builds
The rookie-scale extension window is starting to come into focus for Orlando, and Anthony Black sits right in the middle of it. The Magic have been in ongoing talks with the former lottery pick, a negotiation that matters more now as clubs around the league watch how Orlando handles its payroll and its young core. Around the same time, Oklahoma City locked in Cason Wallace on a five-year rookie-scale extension, another example of a team choosing to secure a rising guard before the deadline drama can spill into the season.
For the Magic, this is about more than one contract. Black remains a key part of their long-term plan, but the closer the deadline gets, the more the conversation shifts from development to leverage and timing. Orlando has some decisions to make, and the rest of the league knows it, which is why this situation feels heavier than a routine extension discussion. [Read more 🡒]
Anthony Black Just Became A Real Magic Cap Dilemma
The rookie-scale extension window has already turned into a small boardroom test around the league, and Anthony Black has suddenly become one of the cleaner examples of how the new financial reality is changing decisions. Orlando has watched plenty of other young players around the NBA land new deals or enter negotiations, but the Magic are taking a more cautious path with their own guard as they sort through a roster that already carries real long-term money.
Blacks value to the Magic is obvious enough, which is why his situation stands out more than most. Orlando would rather keep that growth curve intact than rush into a deal just because the calendar says it is possible, and the broader league activity only sharpens the contrast. With the front office trying to manage flexibility and avoid piling on another significant commitment too soon, this is less about doubt in Black and more about how tightly the cap can squeeze even a team that likes where its young core is headed. [Read more 🡒]
Noah Pendas Latest Setback Raises A Tough Early Question For Orlando
Noah Pendas preseason has taken another frustrating turn, and for Orlando it comes with an early reminder of how quickly a promising camp can get complicated. The forward said the latest issue involves a partial tear in his right hamstring, after a previous injury in a different part of the same muscle had already fully healed. He spoke candidly about the recovery process, leaning on the teams medical staff and stressing the need to stay patient rather than try to force his way back too soon.
For the Magic, it leaves a tough early question hanging over a player they had been trying to integrate while preseason momentum was still building. Penda said he has been encouraged by the way the group has looked and by the support from teammates, even as he works through the setback. The broader concern now is less about his immediate absence than how Orlando manages a young players health without letting one injury turn into a lingering issue. [Read more 🡒]