The NBA’s latest restricted free agency standoff is sending a clear message, and Anthony Black is one of the players paying attention.
What’s happening with Jalen Duren, Jonathan Kuminga and Bennedict Mathurin is more than just a slow-moving offseason wrinkle. It’s becoming the shape of the market.
Those three still have until Oct. 1 to sign the qualifying offer and stay with their teams for the upcoming season, which would push them toward unrestricted free agency. Peyton Watson was part of that same logjam until the Cleveland Cavaliers landed him in a sign-and-trade with the Denver Nuggets, then used that move to get James Harden to his new deal.
Watson’s agreement with Cleveland came in at three years and $64.5 million, with the Cavs doing some cap gymnastics to make it work.
For the Orlando Magic, this is the part of the summer worth watching closely. Black, his camp and the team are all looking at the same market, and the message from around the league is pretty plain: teams are being careful with extension money while trying to stay away from the first and second apron.
That’s true in Denver, and it may be true in Orlando too. Under Jeff Weltman, the Magic may be willing to slow-play one of their own young players for the first time.
That’s what makes this restricted free agency class feel different. The system is supposed to protect teams that develop players, and it does.
But the apron rules have also frozen a lot of good players in place. Teams don’t want to make an offer if they expect a match, and that has left some capable rotation players sitting in limbo.
Watson is the latest example, and he wasn’t alone in that category. He, Duren, Kuminga and Mathurin are all NBA players, all rotation-level pieces, and all guys who have already helped teams in playoff runs early in their careers.
Yet the market has moved slowly around them. The expectation is that they’ll all at least sign the qualifying offer, then eventually find either a suitor or a sign-and-trade path to longer-term security as the summer winds down.
That same dynamic is now looming over Black.
The difference, at least for now, is that Black is still trying to fully establish himself. He had a real breakthrough in the 2026 season, putting up 15.0 points per game and making noticeable scoring gains while remaining a dependable defender.
Still, it was also the first time in his three-year career that he averaged more than 10 points per game. That matters.
It’s progress, but it’s not the kind of track record that locks in certainty.
And certainty is what teams are paying for right now.
There are extensions getting done around the league, but the pool has been narrow. In the 2022 draft class, Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe and Dyson Daniels all landed extensions.
Victor Wembanyama is the only player from the 2023 class to do the same so far. The players most likely to cash in next are the ones teams already trust: Brandon Miller, Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson, with Cason Wallace and Bilal Coulibaly also expected to get theirs.
Black sits in a tougher spot. He has shown enough to matter, but maybe not enough to get a blank check.
Orlando is also dealing with apron concerns, which makes a huge guaranteed number harder to justify. That’s why his range is so interesting.
During his strong December run, Zach Lowe predicted Black would chase the same kind of contract Jalen Suggs received. A more realistic benchmark now appears to be Dyson Daniels’ four-year, $100 million deal.
Depending on how the market breaks, Black’s value could land anywhere from the low-$20 million range to just shy of $30 million.
Daniels averaged 14.1 points per game in the 2025 season before signing his extension. Mathurin has a career average of 16.2 points per game and was a strong scorer for a championship-level Indiana Pacers team before his trade to the LA Clippers. Kuminga has had his own stop-and-start path, topping out at 16.1 points per game in the 2024 season and then averaging 12.3 points in 16 games with the Atlanta Hawks last year.
Those numbers matter because they help frame what Black may be chasing, and why this has turned into a stalemate across the league. Players want deals that reflect a bigger role.
Teams want to avoid paying for a role that might not hold. Black should be in that same conversation, which is exactly why the Magic are watching how this plays out before making their own call.
Weltman has a reputation for taking care of his players, and that matters here too. Even if Orlando and Black don’t get something done before the deadline, this doesn’t have to be the end of the road. Black could still build on his 2026 season and put himself in a stronger position next summer.
The deadline won’t settle everything. But it does mark a new kind of pressure point for restricted free agents, especially the ones whose futures aren’t totally settled.
Black is not quite in the same category as the names clogging up this summer, but he’s close enough to feel the squeeze. One more year of growth may be what keeps him from getting stuck in the same purgatory.
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Paolo Banchero And The Magic Face Real Pressure To Deliver
The Magic enter the new season with a deeper, more defined core than they have had in years, pairing Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs with new addition Desmond Bane. Sean Sweeney is in as the new head coach, and the expectation around the group is simple: take the next step after three straight first-round playoff exits.
For Banchero and the rest of that young core, the pressure is real because the organization has moved beyond patience and into the stage where results matter. Orlando wants to climb into the Easts top tier, and this season will be measured not just by progress, but by whether the Magic start looking like a team ready to do more than merely get back to the postseason. [Read more 🡒]