Anthony Black is heading toward the kind of contract crossroads that has already complicated things for Jonathan Kuminga and Bennedict Mathurin.
The Orlando Magic guard has one year left on his rookie deal and is on track for restricted free agency next summer. A long-term agreement with Orlando is still possible, but so far the two sides have not landed one. And with the Magic already tied into long-term money for Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero, Black’s path to a bigger payday with Orlando looks tougher than it did a year ago.
That puts him in a tricky spot. Black has real talent and should be in line to make serious money on his next contract, whether that ends up coming from the Magic or someone else. But the last week has offered a reminder that talent alone does not guarantee a rich market.
Kuminga and Mathurin have both found that out. Each has the kind of upside that suggests a bigger contract should be waiting, yet the offers simply have not materialized the way they hoped. They took a shot at landing more money through free agency and came up short.
Kuminga was a restricted free agent last season, but the Warriors did not get any outside interest on the open market. That led them to extend a qualifying offer, which Kuminga accepted before he was traded to the Atlanta Hawks in the middle of the season.
The Hawks had a team option on his deal, but they declined to pick it up. Kuminga’s market had not shown up in free agency, though it did later when the Timberwolves entered the picture. He could have taken more lucrative deals, but his move to sign with Minnesota was viewed as a way to reach free agency sooner and potentially set up a better payday later.
Mathurin’s path has been different, but the result has been similar. As a restricted free agent, he could have returned to the Los Angeles Clippers, but their decision to select Keaton Wagler in the NBA draft and sign Bradley Beal changed the equation.
That made it harder for Mathurin to establish himself as the team’s shooting guard of the future. Now he is trying to follow the Kuminga route by proving he can be worth more down the line.
Black may be facing the most delicate situation of the group. He is the last member of Orlando’s young draft core waiting to be paid, and that alone makes his future harder to read.
The Magic probably cannot match what another team might be willing to put on the table, but his restricted free agent status could also keep other clubs from jumping in. Teams tend to be far more comfortable chasing unrestricted free agents, and that hesitation can shrink the market fast.
How Black performs this season will shape the size of his next opportunity, but even a step forward may not be enough to create the kind of bidding war he wants.
This is his first real chance to cash in on an NBA contract, and the timing matters. The recent examples around him suggest that what a player deserves and what the market actually gives are not always the same thing.
If Black does not land a long-term deal, the most likely outcomes sound familiar: a short two-year contract like Mathurin’s, or a qualifying offer similar to the one Kuminga took last season with the Warriors.
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