Week 1 brings a fresh start for Oregon State, but the national outlook on Saturday’s opener is pretty clear: most of the country expects No. 23 Houston to handle business at TDECU Stadium.
The Beavers head to Texas with JaMarcus Shephard set to make his head coaching debut, and the matchup has already drawn plenty of attention because of all the unknowns surrounding Oregon State’s new-look roster. Even so, the early consensus has leaned heavily toward the Cougars, who are 20.5-point favorites according to Draftkings Sportsbook.
A few national outlets have gone beyond the spread and put numbers on just how steep the challenge looks for Oregon State. Dimers gave the Beavers a 9% chance to win, while ESPN’s FPI model has them at 8.7%. Sports Betting Dime also tagged Houston as the comfortable favorite in the game.
The projected score lines reflect that same gap. The Arizona Republic picked Houston to win 38-17, with Jeremy Cluff pointing to the Cougars’ Big 12 standing and Conner Weigman as the reasons for the home team’s edge.
"Houston is fourth in odds to win the Big 12. Conner Weigman and the Cougars will show why with a big win over Oregon State at home," Jeremy Cluff wrote.
Bookies.com also came down on Houston, with Bill Speros saying the Cougars should cover. He highlighted Willie Fritz’s turnaround last season, Makhi Hughes’ role in the run game, and the importance of Houston’s defense.
"The second spot in the Big 12 title game could belong to a half-dozen teams, including Houston. The conference can expect no more than one CFB Playoff Spot.
So, big wins in non-conference games just mean more in the Big 12, too. Willie Fritz's Cougars took a nice leap last season from 4-8 to 10-3.
RB Makhi Hughes carries the load in this ball-control offense, along with QB Conner Weigman. But Houston's defense will determine the difference between the Texas Bowl and a potential playoff berth.
The Beavers begin another rebuild under new coach JaMarcus Shepherd," Bill Speros wrote.
Pete Fiutak offered a similar read, saying Oregon State should be better than last year’s 2-10 team but still not enough to threaten Houston over four quarters.
"Oregon State will be competitive, and it's not going to be as bad as the 2-10 version of last season, but Houston will be too sharp and explosive. It'll be a 60-minute game, but the Cougars won't have to deal with a ton of drama," Pete Fiutak wrote.
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