Boise State’s path to the College Football Playoff got a little clearer Tuesday night.
When the first 2026 CFP rankings came out, the Broncos were the only Group of Six team to make the cut, landing at No. 25. The committee’s bracket also had Boise State matched up with Alabama in the opening round, a sign that the Broncos are firmly in the conversation for the 12-team field.
That matters because the highest-ranked Group of Six team in the final CFP rankings earns an automatic berth into the playoff. For now, Boise State is the team sitting in front.
The Broncos are 7-1 overall and 4-0 in the Pac-12, and the betting market has taken notice. DraftKings Sportsbook listed Boise State at +100 to make the CFP as of Wednesday morning, up slightly from +105 last week.
New Mexico is the biggest challenger. The Lobos are 7-1 and 4-0 in the Mountain West, and they jumped into the AP Poll for the first time in school history this week at No.
- They were not included in the CFP rankings, though, and their odds sit at +215 to reach the playoff.
The schedule ahead gives New Mexico plenty of chances to keep pushing its case. The Lobos have road games at Nevada and Wyoming, plus home dates with UNLV and Air Force.
UTSA is also in the mix. The American co-leader is 7-1 and 4-0, and DraftKings has the Roadrunners at +600 to make the CFP.
Their next major test comes Nov. 14 against North Texas, which is listed at +1600 as the Group of Six’s No. 4 CFP candidate.
Oregon State’s outlook took a major hit after last week’s loss to Fresno State. The Beavers dropped from +750 to +4000 in the CFP market, and they’ll head to Boise State on Nov. 14.
Here is a collection of postseason projections from national writers for Pac-12 teams entering Week 10 of the 2026 college football season.
College Football Playoff: Boise State at Notre Dame
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