San Diego State’s wild win over Texas State bought the Aztecs a little breathing room, but it didn’t change the math for Saturday’s trip to Oregon State. The market still sees a steep climb ahead, with the Aztecs listed as 14.5-point underdogs against the Beavers in their Pac-12 meeting.
San Diego State sits at 2-3 overall and 1-0 in conference play after edging Texas State 31-29 at home. Oregon State is 3-2 and also 1-0, and the Beavers are carrying a moneyline of -750.
The Aztecs are +520. The over-under is set at 53.5 points.
That opening conference win mattered for SDSU, but the bigger picture is still unforgiving. The Aztecs can’t afford to slip early in the league race, and they already have as many losses as they finished with in the entire last regular season. Another setback would also make the path to bowl eligibility much tighter as they chase a second straight bowl season.
San Diego State’s win over Texas State came with plenty of roster chaos attached. The Aztecs were missing several players because of injuries and a mumps outbreak, yet they still found a way to pull it out by leaning on depth.
Coach Sean Lewis usually keeps injury information close to the vest, and the first availability report of the week is due Wednesday evening on the league’s website. Even then, it won’t specify injuries or illnesses.
The biggest example of SDSU’s next-man-up approach was true freshman running back Josiah Lucas. Filling in for injured starter Lucky Sutton, Lucas ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns. He became the first true freshman to top 100 rushing yards for the Aztecs since Donnel Pumphrey in 2013.
There still isn’t an update on Sutton, who aggravated a high ankle sprain at Toledo two games ago, or Javion “Chop” Kinnard, who left that same game with what looked like a left knee injury. The school has also declined to address the mumps outbreak, pointing to various government guidelines.
Oregon State has had SDSU’s number for a long time. The Beavers lead the series 5-2 and have won the last five meetings. San Diego State’s last win in the matchup came in 1975 in Corvallis.
The Beavers come in after a convincing 56-26 road win at Colorado State to open conference play. They dropped their first two games to Houston and Texas Tech, then turned things around with three straight victories.
Before the season, most observers picked San Diego State to finish second in the Pac-12 behind Boise State, the heavy favorite. Instead, the Aztecs have slid in most power rankings, while Oregon State has moved into the top tier as one of the league’s top three teams.
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