No. 24 Boise State walks into Saturday with more than just a ranked win on the line. A victory over Oregon State would lock up home-field advantage for the Pac-12 championship game, and the Broncos will try to do it with College GameDay in town and a national audience watching at Albertsons Stadium.
Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. Mountain time, with the Broncos at 8-1 overall and 5-0 in Pac-12 play.
Oregon State comes in at 5-4 and 3-2. The game will air live on USA Network.
Boise State has been on a tear since opening the season with a loss at No. 16 Oregon, stacking up eight straight wins and strengthening its case as the Group of Six favorite for the College Football Playoff. Oregon State, meanwhile, has stumbled after a five-game winning streak and may be without starting quarterback Braden Atkinson, who leads the nation in passing.
The betting market reflects that gap. DraftKings Sportsbook has Boise State favored by 14.5 points at home, with the Broncos listed at -650 on the moneyline and Oregon State at +470.
The matchup has also drawn plenty of attention from national voices, and the common thread in the picks is pretty clear: Boise State’s offense is expected to have room to work.
Douzable’s rationale: “Both of these defenses have struggled mightily at times. … Whether it’s Maddux Madsen or (Max) Cutforth, they can really put up a lot of points.”
That line fits the shape of the game. Neither defense has been especially sharp lately, and both offenses rank near the top of the Pac-12 in several categories.
As of Thursday morning, Madsen appeared much more likely to play than Atkinson. Boise State has also shown it can keep the offense moving with Cutforth, while Oregon State backup quarterback Maalik Murphy has seen limited action this season.
Kanell’s rationale: “The problem with Oregon State, I think, is that they’re so much fun to watch, they throw the ball all over the yard, but they’re a little bit too one-dimensional. They’re not even concerned with the run game. And when you have that, it becomes a little bit easier to stop.”
That concern has shown up in recent games. Opponents have leaned on more three-man rushes with eight defenders in coverage against the Beavers over the last two weeks, and that approach has mostly held up. Boise State’s own run defense, which leads the Pac-12, only adds to the challenge for Oregon State.
Dant’s rationale: “I will lay the (points) with the Broncos, but this is a fun matchup.”
That view matches the bigger picture: Boise State is surging, while Oregon State looks like a team that may have already hit its high point in October. The Beavers still have a dangerous weapon in receiver Jesse Legree, but Dant doesn’t see this one staying tight on The Blue.
In Other News...
Oregon State Faces A Wide Open Chance In Boise State Shootout
Boise States offense has been doing its part, but the bigger question heading into this matchup is whether its defense can hold up long enough to make the game manageable. Coach Spencer Danielson has already acknowledged the problems on that side of the ball, and Oregon State gets a chance to test them after back-to-back losses have left the Beavers looking for a reset. For Oregon State, this is the kind of game that can still be shaped by execution and tempo, with quarterback Braden Atkinson and receiver Jesse Legree expected to carry much of the load.
JaMarcus Shephards group also has its own work to do, especially after the defense has been asked to tighten up in recent weeks. Boise State has been living in shootout territory, which means Oregon State does not need perfection to stay in the fight, but it does need cleaner play than it has shown lately. If the Beavers can make the Broncos defend for four quarters and avoid giving away easy answers on the other side, they at least give themselves a real path into a game that looks wide open on paper. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Faces One Huge Week 11 Question Under Center
Boise State enters Week 11 with some uncertainty at the most important spot on the field, as starting quarterback Maddux Madsen is listed as questionable because of a knee injury. Head coach Spencer Danielson made clear Madsen remains the starter if he is healthy, while also shutting down any notion of a quarterback battle as the Broncos get ready for a game that could hinge on who is available and who is not.
The injury report does not stop there, either. Running back Sire Gaines and safety Travis Anderson are also questionable, while left guard Carson Rasmussen has already been ruled out, adding another layer of concern for a Boise State team trying to sort through its lineup late in the week. If Madsen cannot go, the Broncos will have to adjust quickly under center, and the ripple effects could shape how they approach the matchup from the opening snap. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Is About To Test An Oregon State Defense In Flux
After the loss to Texas State, Oregon State head coach Jamarcus Shephard spent part of the week trying to steady a defense that has some obvious issues to clean up before Boise State arrives. The Beavers have been working through adjustments after getting exposed against the run, and the task does not get any easier with a Broncos offense built around a productive ground game and a physical backfield.
The challenge is made tougher by the absence of safety Sai Vadrawale, who remains sidelined with an injury, leaving Oregon State to sort through its options in the secondary while the front seven tries to tighten up. Boise State brings a dangerous rushing attack into the matchup, and for a defense already in flux, Saturday is shaping up as another early test of how quickly those fixes can take hold. [Read more 🡒]