No. 18 Oklahoma State and No.
20 Houston look awfully similar on the surface. Both are 1-loss teams, both can put up points, and both have defenses that live in the middle of the Big 12 pack.
But this one has the feel of a matchup where Houston’s strengths line up neatly with a few of OSU’s biggest questions.
The Cowboys have been getting more attention lately, and it’s easy to see why. They’re riding a four-game winning streak, and they’ve got a rising star at quarterback plus playmakers scattered all over the field.
Still, Houston brings one of the better résumés of the two thanks to a 28-26 road loss at No. Texas Tech.
The Cougars may also be better equipped to stress-test the Cowboys in a few spots that have been uneven through five games.
Offensively, these teams can both move the scoreboard. Houston ranks second in the Big 12 at 40 points per game, just ahead of Oklahoma State’s 38.2.
But they get there in very different ways. The Pokes are the league’s top passing offense, while Houston leans heavily on the ground game, averaging nearly 42 rush attempts per game compared with just 29 passes.
The Cougars are fourth in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game.
Defensively, the numbers are close too. Houston allows 19.2 points per game and Oklahoma State gives up 20.4, putting them near the middle of the conference.
But the split is sharper underneath that. OSU is fifth in the league in passing defense, while Houston sits 13th.
The Cougars, though, are first in the Big 12 against the run, and Oklahoma State is 13th.
That sets up three areas that could swing Saturday night.
The first is turnovers, and this is where the contrast is stark. Houston has been excellent at taking care of the ball, ranking tied for third in the league with only four turnovers lost - three fumbles and one interception. Oklahoma State has been far sloppier, sitting 15th out of 16 teams with nine turnovers, split between four fumbles and five interceptions.
The Cougars have also been better at creating takeaways, tying for fourth with eight forced turnovers. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are tied for 10th with six.
But there’s a wrinkle for OSU: the turnover issues have eased as the season has gone on. Drew Mestemaker’s interception count was front-loaded, with two against Tulsa and two more against Oregon, and those two against Oregon were batted passes.
He has thrown just one interception over the last three games. Two of the Cowboys’ four lost fumbles also came against Tulsa, and there was also the Mestemaker drop against Murray State.
So the question isn’t just whether Oklahoma State has had turnover trouble. It’s whether that was an early-season skid or something that can still pop up when the pressure rises.
The second problem area is the red zone, where the Cowboys have had to work too hard for too little early in the year. They were better against UCF, but they still rank 15th in the Big 12 in touchdown percentage inside the 20.
The trend is positive, though. Oklahoma State has scored on all five of its red-zone trips over the past two games after going scoreless on four red-zone chances in its first three.
Last week was its best return yet, with four touchdowns on five tries.
That said, Houston hasn’t exactly been a wall once opponents get deep into its territory. The Cougars are last in the Big 12 in opponent red-zone scoring percentage, allowing points on 92.9% of trips, and they’re 15th in touchdowns allowed there. Opponents have scored on 78.6% of red-zone possessions overall, and Houston has forced only two field goals in 14 trips.
Then there’s third down, where the teams are living in very different worlds. Oklahoma State has had trouble stringing together steady drives unless it lands a big chunk play. The explosive plays have been there, but keeping the offense on schedule has not always come easily.
Houston, on the other hand, has been the best third-down offense in the country. The Cougars are converting 62.7% of their third-down chances and have been nearly as sharp on fourth down, going 5-for-7 for a 71.4% success rate.
That’s a Top 20 number nationally. Style matters here: OSU wants to hit you with playmakers and big plays, while Houston prefers to chip away and control the field.
If the Cowboys can move the chains more consistently, even just a little, they can help their own explosive offense do the rest.
In Other News...
Oregon State Has A True Freshman WR Fans Need To Know
Jesse Legree has gone from late addition to one of the biggest breakout stories in college football, and Oregon State has been the beneficiary of every bit of it. The true freshman wide receiver arrived in Corvallis as a three-star recruit from Maryland with an offer list that leaned toward smaller programs, then quickly turned that opportunity into production that has forced national attention his way.
Through six games, Legree has been impossible to ignore, delivering big-play after big-play at a pace few receivers anywhere can match. He has topped 100 yards and scored at least once in every game, while his 24.5 yards per catch has made him one of the most explosive pass-catchers in the country and given the Beavers a new offensive threat to build around. [Read more 🡒]
Ryan Leaf Sees Oregon State Creating A Huge Problem For Washington State
Oregon States surge under JaMarcus Shephard has been hard to miss, and Ryan Leaf thinks the improvement is showing up in the most dangerous way possible. He pointed to Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree as the engines of a passing attack that has climbed to the top of the country, with the Beavers looking far more coordinated and far less predictable than they were earlier in the season.
Leaf also sees real trouble ahead for Washington State, where the matchup with Oregon State feels less like a coin flip than a stress test. He praised the coaching work of Mitch Dahlen on offense and Trent Bray on defense, but said the Cougars may have a hard time matching up with what Oregon State is bringing on both sides of the ball, and he doubts a quarterback switch would move the needle much. [Read more 🡒]
Drew Mestemaker Is Creating A New Question About His Next Step
Drew Mestemakers rise has started to create a different kind of conversation around Oklahoma State, one that goes beyond the Cowboys push to stay in the Big 12 race. With the team still trying to prove it belongs in the title picture, Mestemakers play has drawn enough attention to make his next step a real talking point, especially with a stretch of upcoming games that could shape both the teams record and his profile.
Todd McShays latest take only sharpened the debate. He sees Mestemaker as someone with the kind of tools NFL teams want to track closely, while also making the case that another season in Stillwater could serve him well as he gains more experience against stronger defenses. For Oklahoma State, that leaves an intriguing backdrop: a quarterback whose stock is rising, and a program whose own goals still demand his full attention. [Read more 🡒]