Oklahoma State Cowgirls Are Rolling-But How High Can They Climb?
The Oklahoma State Cowgirls aren’t just winning-they’re making a statement. With a 16-point win over BYU, they’ve closed out the first half of Big 12 play on a high note.
And at this point, the question isn’t whether they’ll be dancing in March. That part’s been settled.
The real question is: just how high can they rise?
Let’s take a look at the resume.
Where They Stand Now
The Cowgirls currently sit at No. 28 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. That’s a solid spot, but it comes with a few asterisks.
They’re 0-2 in Quad 1 games, which is the selection committee’s gold standard for evaluating top-tier wins. They’ve handled business elsewhere-going 5-2 in Quad 2, 2-1 in Quad 3, and a clean 9-0 in Quad 4-but that elusive signature win is still missing.
And that matters. Because while the eye test says this team is too good to be hanging around the bubble, the paper trail doesn’t quite scream “top-five seed” just yet.
Bracketology Breakdown
If you’re following the projections, you’ve seen the Cowgirls land anywhere from a 5-seed to a 9-seed in various bracketology reports. Most recently, ESPN has them slotted as an 8-seed, while the NET rankings suggest they’re hovering right around the 7-line.
But here’s the thing: NET isn’t the final word. It’s a tool, not a verdict. The selection committee looks at the full picture-quality wins, bad losses, strength of schedule, and momentum heading into March.
Opportunities Ahead
The Cowgirls still have chances to make their move. Two ranked opponents remain on the schedule, and those games could be pivotal.
- Feb. 14 vs No. 21 Texas Tech: It’s a home game, so it currently counts as a Quad 2 opportunity.
But beating a ranked team-even if it doesn’t move the needle in NET terms-still carries weight with the committee. Style points matter this time of year.
- Feb. 21 at No. 22 West Virginia: This one’s likely locked in as a Quad 1 game. A road win here would be the kind of resume-builder that could elevate Oklahoma State into the six-seed conversation-or better.
There are also a couple of sneaky-important road games looming:
- At Iowa State (NET 33)
- At Arizona State (NET 49)
If either team climbs into the NET top 45 by Selection Sunday, those games could retroactively become Quad 1 wins. That’s a big “if,” but it’s something to monitor. For now, OSU fans might find themselves rooting for Iowa State to knock off TCU on Feb. 22-an upset that could boost the Cyclones’ NET and, by extension, the value of OSU’s earlier win over them.
Best Wins So Far
- Home vs Iowa State (NET 32) - Quad 2
- Neutral vs Miami (NET 47) - Quad 2
- Home vs Colorado (NET 51) - Quad 2
None of these scream "marquee," but they’re solid. The Iowa State win stands out the most, especially now that the Cyclones have rattled off three straight since that loss.
But injuries in that game could diminish its impact in the committee’s eyes. Still, if that win gets bumped into Quad 1 territory, it helps-especially if it’s not the only one.
Losses That Could Linger
- Home vs Baylor (NET 27) - Quad 2
- At Colorado (NET 51) - Quad 2
- At St. John’s (NET 109) - Quad 3
The St. John’s loss is the one to watch.
The Red Storm are teetering on the edge of Quad 4 territory. If they drop to 131st or worse in the NET, that becomes a Q4 loss-something the committee tends to frown upon.
For now, it’s not disastrous, but it’s definitely not ideal.
What’s Holding Them Back?
It really comes down to the lack of a signature win. Among the 28 teams ranked ahead of OSU in the NET, 26 have at least one Quad 1 victory.
The top 17 all have multiple. Sixteen of those teams are projected to earn a five-seed or better.
That’s the gap. It’s not a talent issue.
It’s not a coaching issue. It’s a resume issue.
The Path Forward
If Oklahoma State can snag a win at West Virginia or turn one of those road games into a Quad 1 victory, the conversation changes. Suddenly, you’re not just talking about a solid tournament team-you’re talking about a team that could make real noise in March.
Until then, the Cowgirls are in a good spot. But there’s still another gear to hit. And if they find it, don’t be surprised if they’re wearing a better seed than most expected when the brackets are revealed.