Oklahoma State is walking into what looks like a classic Big 12 track meet, and the betting market is treating it that way too. FanDuel has this weekend’s matchup as one of only three games with a point total in the 70s, with Tulsa-North Texas landing in the same crowded neighborhood.
That kind of number usually tells you everything you need to know about expectations. Eric Morris, though, pointed out that these games can go sideways in a hurry.
“Some of these games get weird and tricky, and they’ve seen each other and it goes the opposite way, and it’s a low-scoring game, right?” Eric Morris said.
“I’ve been in those before, too. It’ll be fun.
I think the excitement for it and everybody that loves to compete on both sides going out here and laying it all on the table.”
For Mo Horn, the former Red Raider now on the other sideline, the possibility of a shootout changes the defensive mindset in a very specific way.
“It makes everyone tighten up even more, knowing their keys, knowing what they gotta do, knowing the room for error is very, very small,” Horn said.
Morris said the coaching approach doesn’t really shift just because the scoreboard projection is inflated. In his view, neither offense is built around one thing alone.
“I don’t think either one of these teams is one-dimensional right now, which I think causes some issues,” Morris said. “Anytime you’re a defensive coach, obviously you wanna stop the run first and foremost and know that’s a huge part to what teams’ gameplans are going into it. I don’t see that being any different.”
The quarterback situation on the Texas Tech side is a big reason the offense has changed shape. The Red Raiders moved to Thomas Castellanos only two games ago, and that switch has altered what they can do.
“Obviously, they’ve added some quarterback run game stuff,” Eric Morris said. “Super smart to do that. If you look at their numbers, just the last couple games when he’s been starting, they’d be right there at the top of the nation, right, as far as yards per game and scoring offense and the whole nine yards.”
Texas Tech’s only loss came three weeks ago, and the response was the quarterback change that reshaped the attack. Castellanos has not been as efficient as a passer as Will Hammond, completing 55% of his throws compared with Hammond’s 67%.
But the ball is coming off his hand with more damage attached to it. Castellanos has hit 8-of-17 deep throws of at least 20 yards, good for 47%, and he’s completed half of his 14 attempts in the 10-19 yard range. Hammond, by comparison, connected on only 34% of deep passes and 56% of intermediate throws, and he threw six interceptions in those areas to Castellanos’ one.
The sample size matters. One of Castellanos’ starts came against a West Virginia defense that has been miserable this season. The other came against Arizona, one of the Big 12’s best run defenses, allowing only four yards per carry and ranking 43rd nationally by giving up just 125 rushing yards per game.
Against the Wildcats, Castellanos still piled up 117 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. J’Koby Williams was even louder, rushing 14 times for 175 yards and a score. Against West Virginia, that duo combined for 262 rushing yards, with Castellanos carrying 23 times for 102 yards on his own.
“I think their running back is arguably right there neck and neck with Caleb Hawkins as the most explosive guy in this conference,” Morris said.
Williams has now topped 100 rushing yards in each of the last two games, averaging 12.5 and 16 yards per carry in those outings. In his four other Big 12 games, he reached 100 yards only once.
That surge lines up with Castellanos taking over, and the quarterback’s legs are the biggest reason. When sacks are removed, he has run 18 and 20 times in his two starts and averaged between 6 and 6.9 yards per carry. Hammond, meanwhile, ran more than six times only once in four Big 12 games, and that came against Cincinnati, where he finished with a season-high 58 rushing yards without sacks.
Taurean Davis said Oklahoma State understands the assignment, and the key is staying disciplined instead of trying to do too much.
“If we can contain him all night, it’ll be a good one,” Davis said.
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