Oklahoma State heads into Ames on Halloween night with a lot to sort out, even after finally snapping back into place with a home win over Colorado. The Cowboys sit at 3-1 and tied for second in the Big 12, while Iowa State comes in at 1-3 in league play - though every one of those losses came against ranked opponents.
The clearest battleground may be the one this OSU team keeps running into: third downs. Iowa State has been the conference’s worst third-down offense, converting just 29.4% of its chances, which puts the Cyclones at No. 135 out of 138 FBS teams. Their best showing in a league game came in the win over West Virginia, when they hit 45.5% - and that happened against the Big 12’s second-worst third-down defense on average.
Oklahoma State hasn’t exactly cleaned up its own issues there, either. The Cowboys are converting 35.8% of their third downs, good for 14th in the Big 12.
Iowa State’s defense ranks fifth in the league on third downs overall, but it has been more vulnerable against Big 12 foes, including giving up 7-of-14 to Arizona in a 39-3 loss. That puts real pressure on both sides of the ball for the Cowboys: they need to keep drives alive, and they need to get off the field.
Another name that jumps out on the Iowa State side is sophomore running back Aiden Flora. He’s rated No. 10 among running backs by Pro Football Focus with an 88.3 overall grade, and he’s second only to one thing on the Cyclones’ offense: getting touches. Flora ranks third in the Big 12 in rushing at 102.3 yards per game and has seven total touchdowns, plus two more through the air.
“He’s throwing passes, they pitch it to him, he throws it, he runs it, he’s the punt returner,” said OSU head coach Eric Morris. “He just has so many roles on this team.
I think mid-season All-American for a reason. A guy that has definitely produced at a high level.
“He’s one of those guys, the heartbeat of a team. Somebody that has the attitude of like a (Cam) Skattebo or somebody like that that just brings so much toughness to them.”
Iowa State is clearly committed to finding ways to put the ball in Flora’s hands, and the numbers back that up. He owns the highest passing grade among all qualifying FBS running backs at 85.2 after throwing two passes against West Virginia, both completions going for 48 yards and two touchdowns. He has also stayed remarkably clean with the ball: on 102 handoffs, 13 catches and seven punt returns, he has not fumbled once this season.
Flora is coming off his quietest outing of the year, finishing with 36 yards on 12 carries at Arizona. If he bounces back at home, Iowa State has a better shot at making this one uncomfortable.
That said, the recent history between these teams points toward another tight finish. Over the last 10 meetings, not a single game has been decided by more than a touchdown since 2014.
Oklahoma State is 6-4 in that stretch, and the average margin has been just 5.7 points. The biggest difference in any of those games has been seven.
This one could break that pattern. Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in scoring at 40 points per game, while Iowa State is 14th in the 16-team league at 25.9. The Cyclones have topped 17 points in conference play only once, when they put up 45 against West Virginia.
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Jesse Legree Just Gave Oregon State Fans A Reason To Dream Bigger
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Shephard was quick to praise Legrees commitment, pointing to what it says about the culture around the program and the message it sends on the recruiting trail. The timing also adds another layer to an offseason that already includes ongoing contract discussions with quarterback Braden Atkinson, making Legrees return part of a bigger picture in Corvallis. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon State Needs More Than Jesse Legree To Handle Fresno State
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That depth is going to matter again against a Fresno State team that can make life difficult if the Beavers do not stay balanced. Oregon State will want more production from the supporting cast around Jesse Legree, especially with recent games showing how quickly the offense can tilt when a few key contributors are limited, and the challenge now is turning that broader roster help into enough firepower to keep pace. [Read more 🡒]