Oklahoma State heads to Kansas State on Saturday for a noon kickoff in the Little Apple, and both teams arrive with something to prove. The Cowboys are back on the road and back in need of a win after being dropped from the rankings, while Kansas State has dropped two straight, lost its starting quarterback and now sits at 1-4 in Big 12 play after losing four of its last five.
One of the biggest differences in this matchup is the shape of the Kansas State offense. For much of the first half of the season, the Wildcats were leaning on a ground game that looked like the one fans have come to expect, even while the results around it were uneven. That changed when senior starter Avery Johnson went down in K-State’s 35-24 win over Kansas three weeks ago.
With Johnson directing the offense, Kansas State was averaging 240 rushing yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry. In those first six games, the Wildcats were also scoring 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game.
Over the last two outings, though, the numbers have fallen off sharply. Kansas State has managed just 102.5 rushing yards per game, 2.9 yards per attempt and only one rushing touchdown during that stretch.
There is at least one wrinkle to keep in mind: this week’s starter, Blake Barnett, entered late in the first quarter last week and gave the run game a boost. He accounted for 40 rushing yards, not counting 22 yards lost on sacks. With a full week to prepare for him as the starter, Collin Klein and his staff will try to get him as close as possible to that familiar Kansas State style.
Turnovers are another area where the Cowboys may have an opening. Kansas State has not been good at forcing mistakes, ranking last in the Big 12 with just five takeaways on the season.
Four of those have come via fumbles, and the Wildcats have only one interception. That could matter for an Oklahoma State team that gave it away a couple of times last week.
That lone interception came against KU passer Isaiah Marshall, who shared the Big 12 lead with seven picks. Drew Mestemaker shares that same lead, which is not exactly the kind of company Oklahoma State wants to be in.
The third-down and red-zone numbers also tell an interesting story. Even with the recent issues in the run game, Kansas State still ranks third in the league by converting 52.9% of its third-down chances.
But on fourth down, the Wildcats have been a mess. They are just 1-for-8, a 12.5% success rate that is better than only Sam Houston State and Louisville in the FBS, and those two teams are a combined 0-for-15.
Defensively, Kansas State ranks sixth in the Big 12 by holding opponents to a 36.1% third-down conversion rate. Oklahoma State sits 10th on offense at 39.8% and eighth on defense at 37.8%.
The red zone could be the soft spot that matters most for the Cowboys. Kansas State has allowed touchdowns on 69.2% of opponent red-zone trips, which ranks 14th in the league and is tied for 114th best in the FBS. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has turned trips inside the 20 into touchdowns on just 56.5% of its chances.
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