Oklahoma State Still in the Fight: Cowboys Face Crucial Stretch in NCAA Tournament Push
With just seven regular-season games and the conference tournament left, Oklahoma State finds itself in the thick of the NCAA Tournament bubble battle. The Cowboys have work to do, but the path is still there-narrow, yes, but navigable.
A week ago, optimism was in the air in Stillwater. OSU knocked off BYU in a statement win at Gallagher-Iba Arena, sending the student section into a frenzy and earning a much-needed Quad 1 victory. For a moment, the Cowboys had momentum and bracketologists took notice-some even penciled them into the projected field.
But college basketball seasons are roller coasters, and the Cowboys hit a dip-hard. A lopsided loss to No.
1 Arizona was followed by a flat performance against Arizona State. Just like that, the needle moved in the wrong direction.
One step forward, two steps back.
Still, head coach Steve Lutz isn’t reaching for the panic button.
“The season is not over,” Lutz said Thursday. “It’s not lost.
We’ve made progress in the program… We were not in the running for going to the NCAA Tournament last year. At this point in the year, man, we were just hoping to get into the NIT or something.”
That’s not the case anymore. This team has earned the right to be in the conversation. And with seven games left, including multiple Quad 1 opportunities, the Cowboys can still play their way into the field.
As of Friday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has OSU in the “Next Four Out,” slotted as the sixth team outside the tournament cut line. CBS Sports, on the other hand, doesn’t have the Cowboys in their latest projection. The message is clear: OSU is firmly on the bubble, and every game from here on out matters.
Let’s break it down.
The Cowboys sit at No. 70 in the NET rankings. Their résumé includes a 1-6 record in Quad 1 games, but they’ve been solid elsewhere-6-2 in Quad 2 and a perfect 9-0 in Quads 3 and 4. It’s not a bad profile, but it needs a little more bite.
Saturday’s home game against TCU is a big one. Not only is it a Quad 2 opportunity, but TCU is also another bubble team-Lunardi has them as the first team out.
A win here would be a double-dip: it helps OSU and hurts a direct competitor. These are the kinds of games that shift the bubble landscape.
Here’s how the Cowboys’ remaining schedule stacks up, with NET rankings and quadrant designations:
- vs. TCU (NET 47) - Quad 2
- at Colorado (NET 79) - Quad 2 (but could become Quad 1 if Colorado climbs into the top 75)
- **vs.
West Virginia (NET 62)** - Quad 2
- at Cincinnati (NET 61) - Quad 1
- at UCF (NET 45) - Quad 1
- **vs.
Houston (NET 4)** - Quad 1
That’s a schedule full of opportunity. Three Quad 1 games remain, maybe four if Colorado’s NET improves. And with no more Quad 3 or 4 games on the slate, OSU won’t be at risk of résumé-damaging losses.
The target? A 9-9 finish in Big 12 play would likely put the Cowboys in solid position.
That means going 5-2 the rest of the way. Even a 4-3 finish might be enough, depending on how the rest of the bubble shakes out.
But anything less than that, and OSU’s fate could be left to chance-and the whims of the committee.
Lutz knows what’s at stake, and he’s keeping the message simple for his team.
“If you want to defend and rebound and take care of the basketball for the next seven games, you’re gonna be dancing,” Lutz said. “And if you don’t, then you’re gonna have to look in the mirror and be able to own the fact that you didn’t get it done.”
This is the defining stretch of the season. The Cowboys have shown they can rise to the occasion-just ask BYU. But they’ve also shown inconsistency, and that’s what needs to be cleaned up if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
The margin for error is thin. The opportunity is real. Now it’s up to Oklahoma State to seize it.