A week into conference play, the Pac-12’s College Football Playoff picture has already tightened, and Saturday night in Fresno looks like a separator.
No. 23 Boise State and Fresno State meet in what amounts to a CFP elimination game, with both teams sitting at 4-1 overall and 1-0 in league play.
Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. Mountain time.
Boise State enters off a 37-18 home win over Utah State, and the Broncos are positioned as the Pac-12’s best CFP hope in the latest DraftKings Sportsbook update, where they carry the 12th-best odds nationally at +140. Fresno State checks in at +4000, while Oregon State sits at +6500.
The Broncos are also tracking the broader Group of Six race, where James Madison, North Dakota State, New Mexico and UTSA remain the main challengers for the automatic CFP bid. James Madison is listed at +400, North Dakota State at +425, New Mexico at +720 and UTSA at +1100.
On paper, Boise State’s résumé is the strongest of that bunch. ESPN’s FPI gives the Broncos the Pac-12’s toughest schedule among the top contenders at No.
- Oregon State is right behind at No. 50, while Fresno State is down at No.
That matters because the Broncos have already tested themselves against real resistance. Boise State has faced No.
9 Oregon and No. 57 Memphis, and still has No.
60 Oregon State and No. 63 Fresno State on the schedule.
The Broncos will host the Beavers on Saturday, Nov. 14.
James Madison, meanwhile, sits at 5-0 and 2-0 in the Sun Belt, but its schedule is much lighter. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Dukes’ strength of schedule No. 132 out of 138 FBS teams, and they will not face a top-70 FPI opponent this season.
North Dakota State’s path is even softer in that category, with a strength of schedule ranked No. 137.
The Bison do have one notable chance coming up, a road trip to FPI No. 39 New Mexico on Oct.
- The Lobos are 4-1 and 1-0, though their strength of schedule is still just 104th despite a road loss to No.
21 Oklahoma.
UTSA has its own case, helped by a signature win and a schedule that ranks No. 47 in strength of schedule. The Roadrunners are 4-1 and 1-0 in the American and have beaten middling Colorado State and Texas State, both of which are 2-3 and 0-1.
Saturday’s Boise State-Fresno State matchup is also reflected in the betting line, where the Broncos are favored by 6.5 points on the road. Boise State opened as a 9.5-point favorite, the spread fell as low as -5.5, then climbed back to its current number.
Elsewhere in the league, Oregon State is a 14.5-point home favorite against San Diego State on Saturday. The Pac-12’s other Week 6 game comes Friday night, when Washington State visits Utah State in a matchup of teams near the bottom of the standings. Utah State is favored by 5.5 points in Logan.
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Oregon State, meanwhile, has had the better of this series for a while now, winning the last five meetings and owning the historical edge overall. Even with the Beavers installed as the clear favorite, this has the feel of a spot where the opponents circumstances can make things a little less comfortable than the numbers suggest. [Read more 🡒]