Oregon State heads to No. 24 Boise State on Saturday at Albertsons Stadium, and the matchup comes with a few big questions hanging over the Broncos.
To get a read on Boise State, The Oregonian/OregonLive checked in with Broncos beat reporter Nathan Carroll of Bronco Nation News and asked him about the quarterback situation, the defense’s biggest flaw and how the game might unfold.
The first issue is the one that has Broncos fans buzzing: why so many are pushing for Max Cutforth to stay in the lineup over Maddux Madsen.
Carroll said there isn’t one simple explanation. Part of it, he said, comes from how Boise State fans remember Madsen’s 2025 season, which “wasn’t pretty at times,” and some still worry that version of him could show up again. He pointed to the third quarter against Texas State as an example.
But the bigger reason, Carroll said, is what Cutforth has done since taking over. He has been sharp, throwing for three touchdowns in the final eight minutes against Texas State and then piling up 317 yards and four touchdowns against Colorado State last weekend.
Carroll noted that those came against two of the weaker defenses in the Pac-12, but said Cutforth has been decisive and has pushed the ball downfield - exactly what many fans wanted to see more often from Madsen. Still, he added that Spencer Danielson made it clear this week that if Madsen is healthy, he will be the starter.
On the Oregon State side, Boise State’s defense has a clear problem, and Carroll didn’t hesitate to name it: explosives.
He said the Broncos are solid on a down-to-down basis, ranking 33rd nationally in defensive success rate. They’re also strong on third and fourth downs, allowing conversions just 32% of the time, which is eighth-best in the FBS. On plays that don’t go explosive, they’ve been excellent, allowing -0.31 EPA per play, good for 15th nationally.
But when they lose a rep, they lose it big. Boise State is giving up explosive plays on 10% of defensive snaps, which ranks 135th nationally. Carroll said the damage is coming both on the ground and through the air, with the Broncos ranking 130th in passing explosive rate allowed and 128th in rushing explosive rate allowed.
He said the breakdowns have come in different forms from week to week - missed tackles, poor eye discipline in coverage, and at times a lack of pass-rush integrity that lets quarterbacks extend plays. The bottom line, in his view, is that this defense can be beaten with chunk gains. It may not surrender steady, methodical scoring drives, but it can give up the kind of strike that flips a game in one snap.
That was part of the answer to what Texas State did to slow down Dylan Riley. Carroll said the Bobcats pursued the ball well and kept Riley from turning missed tackles into huge gains.
Riley forced six missed tackles, but averaged just 2.9 yards after contact per carry, which Carroll said was 37% below his season average. He had only one run longer than 10 yards.
Texas State also loaded the box and forced Boise State to prove it could beat the secondary. In the first half, Madsen did exactly that, leading touchdown drives on the Broncos’ first four possessions.
But in the third quarter, Carroll said Madsen wasn’t reading the field as well, and Texas State started getting stops. Once Madsen went down with an injury, Cutforth entered and saw the field more clearly, hitting open receivers consistently in the comeback.
Carroll also pointed to Boise State’s running back health as a factor. Sire Gaines was out with an injury, and the coaching staff quickly lost trust in Juelz Goff and Harry Stewart III.
That left Riley as the true workhorse. If Gaines returns, Carroll said, it could help Riley stay fresher and be more efficient with a smaller workload.
Another Boise State star who has drawn attention this season is Jayden Virgin-Morgan, and Carroll said his production dip compared to the past two years is tied to how opponents are treating him.
Teams are sending more doubles, shifts and chips his way, Carroll said, because they know he’s the centerpiece of the defense. That has opened things up for Boise State’s other edge rushers, including Max Stege, who is having a career year. Carroll said Virgin-Morgan is actually winning his one-on-one reps at a higher rate than he did last season, and while he may not reach the double-digit sack total he posted in 2024, he’s still playing a role that helps the rest of the defense.
As for Saturday, Carroll sees a game that favors Boise State. He called it a matchup of two elite offenses against two struggling defenses and said the Broncos should move the ball consistently against Oregon State. He expects Boise State to control the clock and score against a Beavers defense that ranks 118th on third and fourth downs.
He also said the Beavers’ offense may not be able to score freely with Braden Atkinson unavailable this week. Carroll said he views Atkinson as a significantly better quarterback than Maalik Murphy. Because Boise State plays a ball-control style, he expects fewer possessions than some fans might think, which could keep the final score lower than expected.
His prediction: Boise State 38, Oregon State 20.
In Other News...
Boise State Is Suddenly Facing A Very Different Oregon State Setup
Boise States trip against Oregon State has taken on a much different look in a hurry, and the betting market has reflected it. What opened as a relatively modest spread has ballooned into Boise State being favored by 16.5 points, a sharp shift driven by recent results and the changing health picture on both sidelines.
The biggest swing for the Beavers comes at quarterback, where Braden Atkinson is sidelined with a hand injury and Maalik Murphy is expected to make the start. Boise State, meanwhile, is still projected to have Maddux Madsen available, which only adds to the challenge Oregon State faces as it tries to steady itself and keep the game competitive against a team that now looks far more imposing than it did just a short time ago. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon State Walks Into A Boise Atmosphere Built Against Them
Boise spent Saturday morning wrapped in the kind of national spotlight that can turn a home game into a full-on event. ESPNs College GameDay was in town for the first time since 2010, and the pregame show leaned heavily toward the Broncos, with the entire panel backing Boise State over Oregon State. For the Beavers, it added another layer to a road test already carrying plenty of attention, with kickoff set for 4 p.m. Mountain time at Albertsons Stadium and the game slated to air on USA Network.
Boise State coach Spencer Danielson talked about what it meant for the program to host College GameDay, a sign of how far the Broncos have climbed back into the national conversation. Oregon State, meanwhile, walked into an atmosphere built to celebrate the other sideline, with the crowd, the broadcast and the buildup all pointing in one direction before the first snap. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Gets A Timely Boost Before A Huge Oregon State Test
Boise State got a welcome dose of stability heading into a pivotal Pac-12 matchup with Oregon State, with quarterback Maddux Madsen, running back Sire Gaines and safety Travis Anderson all expected to be available. For a Broncos team staring at a major test, having key pieces on offense and defense in the mix matters, especially with head coach Spencer Danielson sounding confident in Madsens recovery and readiness.
Oregon State, meanwhile, is dealing with a significant change under center after losing starter Braden Atkinson to a hand injury. Maalik Murphy is expected to take over in his place, adding another layer of intrigue to a game that already carried real weight for both sides and now features one team getting healthier at just the right time. [Read more 🡒]