Oregon spent the opening stretch of the season looking like a national title machine. The Ducks built one of the priciest rosters in college football, and Dante Moore passed on a chance to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick so he could come back for another run at the College Football Playoff.
Now, less than two months later, that picture has completely flipped.
After a 17-15 loss to No. 21 UCLA, Oregon has a strong argument as the most disappointing team in the country. The Ducks’ margin for error is gone, and the path forward is suddenly razor thin.
The game itself was a mess from the start and only got worse. Backup quarterback Dylan Raiola, who had sparked Oregon in the Week 4 win at USC, was 6-of-19 for 43 yards with two interceptions before being benched in the second half.
The ground game never got going either, with Oregon averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. The Ducks managed only one conversion on 12 third-down tries and coughed the ball up seven times.
Even with all of that, Oregon still had a shot to force overtime. After a facemask penalty on UCLA, the Ducks got the ball with a chance to tie on a two-point conversion with just over two minutes left.
They needed one yard. Instead, Oregon’s offensive line got driven backward and Jordon Davison was stopped for no gain.
That ending fit the whole afternoon.
Raiola’s rough night was especially jarring because the setup had looked so promising. Moore was out with a concussion, but Oregon still had what looked, on paper, like the best backup quarterback in the nation.
Raiola had looked sharp against USC, completing 75% of his passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns in just over two quarters. With an open date to prepare for UCLA, the Ducks had every reason to feel good about the position.
Instead, the same issues that haunted Raiola at Nebraska showed up again. He was loose with the football, forced too much on several snaps and finished with two interceptions and a fumble while completing less than 33% of his throws.
Dan Lanning now has to answer for how an experienced quarterback looked so unready in his own stadium.
There’s at least one immediate benefit for Oregon: when Moore returns, the quarterback conversation should settle down. The Ducks are hoping that happens next week. If Moore is still unavailable, though, Lanning may have to turn to Brock Thomas, a senior and former three-star recruit.
The bigger question is whether the season can still be salvaged at all.
Nobody expected Oregon to be sitting at 3-2 on Oct. 10.
With the talent on this roster, losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA were not on the radar before Week 1. But that’s where the Ducks are, and if they want any shot at the College Football Playoff, they now have to run the table the rest of the way.
That means seven straight wins, starting with Nebraska next week. The Cornhuskers are coming off a crushing loss of their own, and Oregon follows that with games against Northwestern and Illinois - matchups the Ducks should win even if they’re not playing their best.
Here’s what remains on the schedule:
Oct. 17: vs. Nebraska
Oct. 24: at Illinois
Oct. 31: vs. Northwestern
Nov. 7: at Ohio State
Nov. 14: vs. Michigan
Nov. 20: Michigan State
Nov. 28: vs. Washington
If Moore gets healthy and looks like himself again, Oregon still has enough talent to overpower most of those opponents. Michigan has struggled to move the ball, and Washington is 3-3 after being hammered by Iowa.
That leaves the Nov. 7 trip to Ohio State as the hinge point. Right now, Oregon has shown nothing that suggests it can go into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes.
But the talent is there. At least in theory.
In Other News...
Oregons Bear Alexander Controversy Just Put Dan Lanning Under Pressure
The fallout from Oregons win over UCLA has extended well beyond the scoreboard, with defensive lineman Bear Alexander at the center of the conversation after video showed him punching quarterback Nico Iamaleava while Iamaleava was on the ground. The play came in the middle of a sequence that left UCLA fearing a serious knee injury for its quarterback, and it quickly drew public criticism from Bruins coach Bob Chesney, who called it egregious and regrettable.
Dan Lanning has now been put in the uncomfortable position of defending his player and the programs response, saying Alexander will not be disciplined because he believed the contact was part of an effort to dislodge the ball. Alexander has also expressed remorse and said he never intended to cause harm, but the incident has still become a test of how Oregon handles a moment that has landed far outside the normal bounds of postgame review. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Lanning Just Put Dylan Raiola Back In Nebraskas Spotlight
After Oregons loss to UCLA, Dan Lanning had to turn the conversation from the result itself to the Ducks quarterback situation, and that quickly brought Dylan Raiola back into the spotlight. With Dante Moore dealing with a concussion, Lanning said Raiola will compete with Brock Thomas for the starting job, a development that adds another layer of intrigue to an offense still trying to find its footing.
Lanning also pointed to Raiolas composure after being replaced during the game, a small but meaningful sign in a week when the Ducks were looking for steadiness more than flash. He said the teams body language stayed positive even as the offense struggled, and added that some changes are coming to how Oregon operates without getting into specifics, leaving the bigger picture of the quarterback battle and the adjustments around it very much open. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Lanning Signals Oregon Offensive Changes As Pressure Builds
After Oregons disappointing loss to UCLA, Dan Lanning made clear the Ducks are not standing still on offense. The head coach confirmed that changes are being made to the operation after a season of uneven production, a notable acknowledgment from a program that entered the year expecting much more from that side of the ball.
Lanning stopped short of spelling out what those changes will look like, and he did not say whether the staff itself will be altered. Offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer has taken heat for the inconsistency, but Lanning also pointed back to what Mehringer has done in the past while stressing the need for the group to improve moving forward. [Read more 🡒]