No. 6 Oregon walked into Stillwater carrying all the polish of a playoff contender and walked out with a loss that could shadow the rest of its season. The Ducks fell 39-31 to Oklahoma State, a team that had dropped 12 straight games and 21 in a row against FBS opponents, in what may end up being one of the most shocking defeats in program history.
For Dan Lanning, it was the first loss of his tenure to an unranked opponent. And for a team with College Football Playoff ambitions, it opened the door to some uncomfortable questions right away.
The biggest one starts with the coaching staff.
Lanning has made a habit of getting outschemed in the biggest spots, and his teams often look less prepared than the other sideline when the stakes rise. That has been true against elite opponents, but this game was a different kind of problem.
Oklahoma State was not Curt Cignetti’s Indiana, not Ryan Day’s Ohio State, not some national-title juggernaut. It was a Cowboys team that Oregon had crushed 69-3 last season in Eugene, then turned around and looked unready against on the road.
Lanning’s decision to promote first-time coordinators from inside the building now looks shaky at best. His fourth-down aggressiveness, meanwhile, has crossed the line more than once this season. Oregon has failed to convert on fourth down in six tries, and nothing summed up the risk better than the decision to go for it on 4th-and-8 from Oregon’s own 33 late in the game, handing Oklahoma State a short field.
There’s no question Lanning is a strong culture builder and a top recruiter. But after back-to-back CFP letdowns and whatever Saturday was in Stillwater, the question becomes who on this staff is actually coaching the Ducks to win games.
The defense didn’t help.
If not for a pair of huge individual efforts from linebacker Devon Jackson and edge Matayo Uiagalelei, this could have turned into a runaway. Oregon also forced two goal-line stands that kept the damage from getting even worse. Still, the defense was nowhere near good enough, especially for a unit that had been talked about as maybe the best in school history.
The Cowboys hit Oregon with a 75-yard run by quarterback Drew Mestemaker on the opening play, and the night only got rougher from there. Mestemaker finished with 317 passing yards, and Oklahoma State piled up 554 yards of offense, including 353 in the first half.
“We want to be feared when we play football games,” defensive coordinator Chris Hampton said in the fall.
That didn’t age well.
Mestemaker looked like the best quarterback on the field by a wide margin, and Oregon had no clean answer for the confusion and lack of discipline that kept showing up snap after snap. The Ducks may not face a better quarterback than him the rest of the way, but that doesn’t excuse how disorganized they looked.
Then there’s Dante Moore, who is still a puzzle through two games.
There are throws that make the hype easy to believe, including the touch pass to Dakorien Moore early in the third quarter. But there were also stretches that were hard to explain.
In the first half, Moore was 3-for-11 for 17 yards. He and his receivers were not in sync, and he missed Dakorien Moore on a fourth-down throw that should have gone for a touchdown.
He put up a career-high in yards in the opener against Boise State, but even that didn’t feel like one of his best games. The encouraging part is that he has been better in the second half of both games. The problem is that this isn’t the kind of start Oregon needed from a quarterback being talked about as the likely No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
This is not what Moore came back for, and if the inconsistency keeps up, it could become an expensive decision.
His response now matters as much as anything else on Oregon’s schedule. He is the clear leader of this team, and the Ducks will go as he goes.
Moore has said before that he can get in his own head, and a rough opening to his fourth college season raises the same concern again. It doesn’t help that Dylan Raiola is waiting behind him, which is exactly why some fans probably started asking the obvious question after Saturday: What can Dylan Raiola do?
The season is not dead, but it is suddenly in trouble. Oregon sits at 1-1, and what once looked like a path to the CFP with a few losses may now feel much narrower.
Entering the year, you could imagine a three-loss Oregon team still getting in, but that idea depended on losses to ranked teams like USC, Michigan, Ohio State or Illinois. This one is different.
It will hang over the Ducks and could be the thing that keeps them out if the race gets tight.
There is still time to recover, and Notre Dame’s 2024 run after a home loss to Northern Illinois is proof that a bad September can be survived. The Big Ten schedule gives Oregon chances to fix this. But after two weeks, there’s not much evidence yet that this team is ready to do it.
In Other News...
Oregon Is Still Waiting On A Huge Malique Ewin Decision
Oregon has spent part of the offseason in a familiar kind of wait, with transfer center Malique Ewin still awaiting an NCAA eligibility waiver that would determine whether he can suit up for another college basketball season. The request centers on the limited playing time he had during his freshman year at Ole Miss, not on any professional background, which gives the case a different shape than the typical transfer paperwork that college staffs are used to navigating.
For Dana Altman and the Ducks, the uncertainty is another reminder of how messy eligibility decisions can get under the NCAAs new rules. Oregon has already done its part in adding Ewin to the roster from Arkansas, but until the waiver is sorted out, the program is left waiting on one of the bigger personnel questions hanging over the team. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Fans Have A Real Reason To Worry About One Key Commit
Oregons recruiting momentum has been a big part of the buzz around the program this summer, and Dakota Guerrant has been one of the most important names in that push. The five-star standout from Michigan committed to the Ducks earlier this summer, giving Oregon a headline-grabbing pledge from one of the top-ranked players in the country and a major win on the trail.
Now there is at least a little added suspense around that commitment, because Guerrant plans to be in Ann Arbor for Michigans game against Oklahoma. Any time a high-profile commit heads back to campus, especially one with deep local ties, people notice. For Oregon, the visit is enough to raise questions, even if there has been no official change to his status. [Read more 🡒]
Evan Stewarts Profile Is Rising Fast In More Ways Than One
Evan Stewarts return gave the Ducks another familiar weapon in Week 1, and it also signaled just how quickly his profile has climbed again after he missed the previous season because of injury. The receiver is back on the field for the No. 6 Ducks, and off it, his name has been showing up in more and more places as his marketability grows alongside his role in Oregons offense.
Stewart has already lined up multiple NIL partnerships, including a recent deal with McDonalds Oregon and an earlier promotion tied to Nike Air Max 95 BB PE colorways. On3 currently has him ranked No. 98 in its NIL valuation rankings at a projected $1.5 million, part of a broader Oregon presence near the top of the list, and it only adds another layer to a comeback that is starting to look bigger than football alone. [Read more 🡒]