The Oregon Ducks’ season has swung from promise to frustration and back toward possibility, and ESPN’s latest Football Power Index reflects that shift.
After Saturday’s win over No. 20 Northwestern, Oregon’s playoff odds took a noticeable jump. The Ducks still have a long road ahead, but the numbers now show a team with at least a real path back into the Big Ten race and, by extension, the College Football Playoff conversation.
That path starts immediately with a difficult trip to Ohio State. Oregon’s chance to win that game sits at 16.9%, up from 13.1% before the latest FPI update.
What was supposed to be a marquee, top-five showdown has turned into something very different: No. 11 Ohio State against an unranked Oregon team, with both sides relying on backup quarterbacks.
The Ducks have found some rhythm on offense under new play-caller Jay Johnson, while Ohio State’s offense struggled badly with true freshman Luke Fahey under center against USC. It’s a matchup that suddenly feels hard to predict.
The rest of Oregon’s schedule looks far more manageable on paper, at least according to FPI.
Against Michigan in Week 11, the Ducks are given a 78.8% chance to win, slightly up from 77.1%. Michigan’s own issues continue to pile up, and while the Wolverines beat Rutgers with Tommy Carr at quarterback, confidence in Ann Arbor is still shaky. By the time these teams meet in Autzen, both may look different again.
Week 12 brings Oregon to Michigan State, where the Ducks’ win probability is 82.8%, up from 81.2%. Of the games left, this is the one that stands out as the most favorable, though it comes on a short week and on the road between the Michigan and Washington games. Oregon should have the talent edge, but the Ducks still have to show up ready.
Then comes Washington in Week 13, and that number dipped a bit. Oregon’s win chance against the Huskies is 82.0%, down from 85.8%.
That game now carries more intrigue because there is technically a scenario in which Oregon could be playing for a spot in the Big Ten Championship. If that happens, the Ducks would need a rivalry win to keep the door open.
Either way, it sets up for a heated meeting in Autzen.
The broader season outlook also improved after the Northwestern win, though the Ducks are still fighting uphill. ESPN FPI now gives Oregon a 6.9% chance to win out, up from 4.8%.
The Ducks’ chance to win the conference climbed to 2.6% from 0.7%. Their playoff odds rose to 4.2% from 1.9%.
The chance to reach the national championship is 0.3%, up from 0.1%, while the chance to win it all remains at 0.1%.
In Other News...
Oregons Win Brought Back Chip Kelly And A New Offensive Concern
Oregons comeback win over Northwestern at Autzen carried a little extra edge because Chip Kelly was back on the sideline, this time as the Wildcats offensive coordinator and not the coach who once helped define the Ducks modern identity. After Oregon pulled out the 34-26 victory, Kelly spent time postgame with Dan Lanning and Dante Moore, a reminder of how much history still hangs around these matchups even when the uniforms have changed.
The bigger concern for Oregon may have been what happened on the field, where running back Jordon Davison left with a leg injury and is expected to have his status updated soon. In a game the Ducks had to climb back into, any injury in the backfield adds another layer of uncertainty as they move deeper into the season, especially with the offense still trying to settle in after a physical opener. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Just Landed A Surprising New Name In Its OC Search
Florida States decision to fire Mike Norvell after the loss to Clemson has already sent ripples through the coaching carousel, and it comes at a moment when Oregon is trying to steady its own offensive staff. The Ducks recently moved on from offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, leaving Dan Lanning with a major hire to make as the program continues to chase stability and continuity on that side of the ball.
Norvells name has now surfaced in the discussion around Oregons opening, largely because of his previous working relationship with Lanning. It is still only speculation, but it adds an unexpected wrinkle to a search that figures to draw plenty of attention, especially if Oregon wants an experienced voice with ties to its head coach rather than a more conventional outside candidate. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Suddenly Has A Real AP Poll Problem
The latest AP Poll is headed for a shakeup after USC, still unranked, stunned No. 2 Ohio State and sent ripples through the top of the rankings. Oregon and Iowa, both of whom had fallen out of the poll, also took care of business in their recent games, putting themselves back in the conversation as voters sort through a weekend that featured wins from Georgia and Texas Tech along with a handful of losses elsewhere.
For Oregon, the timing matters. A strong response after dropping out of the rankings can quickly change the tone around a team in a crowded Big Ten race, and the Ducks now have a realistic path back into the poll when the new rankings are released. With so many results moving in different directions, the bigger question is how far the reshuffle goes and which teams get caught in the middle of it. [Read more 🡒]