Oregon’s path back into the College Football Playoff picture is narrow, messy, and maybe a little uncomfortable for Ducks fans.
At 5-3, with injuries piling up and the shine worn off what once looked like a special season, Oregon’s chances of making a magical run have taken a hit. Dante Moore’s absence is part of that story, and so is the reality that the Ducks have already dropped three games.
Still, the season isn’t dead yet. With the chaos around the country, a 9-3 finish could still keep Oregon in the at-large conversation.
The bigger opening, though, comes through the Big Ten.
If Oregon is going to make a serious push, the cleanest route is winning the conference. The Ducks have only two conference losses, which leaves them with a much easier lane than it might look at first glance.
UCLA is the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play, while Ohio State and Indiana are the only one-loss teams. That leaves Oregon hanging around, not out of it.
The first step is obvious: win out. That starts with Ohio State next weekend.
If Oregon beats the Buckeyes, the two teams would be tied in conference record, and the Ducks would hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same mark in Big Ten play. After that comes a stretch that looks manageable on paper, with Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington still on the schedule.
But Oregon will need some outside help, too.
One key piece is Indiana taking a second conference loss. Another possible assist could come from USC, which might end up being Oregon’s best friend over the final month.
The Trojans still have Indiana, Maryland, and UCLA left. If USC wins out, that could help Oregon in a four-way tie scenario.
UCLA also has a role to play, because the Bruins would need to hand Illinois another conference loss. That matters because Illinois already owns the head-to-head win over Oregon. The source notes that Illinois is down its starting quarterback, and that UCLA has played well under Bob Chesney, so the Ducks are not exactly asking for a miracle there.
Of course, none of this works unless Oregon starts playing better football itself. The Ducks have already seen momentum disappear before, and that makes the next stretch feel fragile.
The real test begins with Ohio State. And if Oregon is going to keep its playoff hopes alive, that’s where the run has to start.
In Other News...
Oregons Win Brought Back Chip Kelly And A New Offensive Concern
Oregons comeback win over Northwestern at Autzen carried a little extra edge because Chip Kelly was back on the sideline, this time as the Wildcats offensive coordinator and not the coach who once helped define the Ducks modern identity. After Oregon pulled out the 34-26 victory, Kelly spent time postgame with Dan Lanning and Dante Moore, a reminder of how much history still hangs around these matchups even when the uniforms have changed.
The bigger concern for Oregon may have been what happened on the field, where running back Jordon Davison left with a leg injury and is expected to have his status updated soon. In a game the Ducks had to climb back into, any injury in the backfield adds another layer of uncertainty as they move deeper into the season, especially with the offense still trying to settle in after a physical opener. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Just Landed A Surprising New Name In Its OC Search
Florida States decision to fire Mike Norvell after the loss to Clemson has already sent ripples through the coaching carousel, and it comes at a moment when Oregon is trying to steady its own offensive staff. The Ducks recently moved on from offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, leaving Dan Lanning with a major hire to make as the program continues to chase stability and continuity on that side of the ball.
Norvells name has now surfaced in the discussion around Oregons opening, largely because of his previous working relationship with Lanning. It is still only speculation, but it adds an unexpected wrinkle to a search that figures to draw plenty of attention, especially if Oregon wants an experienced voice with ties to its head coach rather than a more conventional outside candidate. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Suddenly Has A Real AP Poll Problem
The latest AP Poll is headed for a shakeup after USC, still unranked, stunned No. 2 Ohio State and sent ripples through the top of the rankings. Oregon and Iowa, both of whom had fallen out of the poll, also took care of business in their recent games, putting themselves back in the conversation as voters sort through a weekend that featured wins from Georgia and Texas Tech along with a handful of losses elsewhere.
For Oregon, the timing matters. A strong response after dropping out of the rankings can quickly change the tone around a team in a crowded Big Ten race, and the Ducks now have a realistic path back into the poll when the new rankings are released. With so many results moving in different directions, the bigger question is how far the reshuffle goes and which teams get caught in the middle of it. [Read more 🡒]