Oregon’s season took another jolt on Saturday, but ESPN’s Football Power Index still sees the Ducks as the favorite in just about every game left on the schedule.
That disconnect has been a theme for three straight weeks now, and it got louder after Oregon’s 21-10 loss to Illinois, a result that marked the Ducks’ third defeat of the season. The loss all but knocked Oregon out of College Football Playoff contention and triggered another major shakeup, with offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer getting fired early Sunday morning.
Now the Ducks are left with more uncertainty than margin for error. There’s no real playoff path to chase, only pride and whatever they can salvage from the final stretch. Questions are stacking up fast, too: who is running the offense, and who will be at quarterback if Dante Moore doesn’t return from his concussion?
Even with all of that, ESPN’s numbers still like Oregon. The Ducks are favored in every remaining game except one, and the FPI still gives them a sliver of a shot at the CFP.
The toughest-looking test on paper comes next week at home against Northwestern. Oregon’s win chance there sits at 70.2%, down from 76.9% before the latest update.
That number is hard to ignore considering Northwestern is 6-1, ranked No. 18, and brings an explosive offense with a competent defense. Oregon is still a 3.5-point favorite at home, but that projection feels a lot more reasonable if Moore is back.
If he isn’t, the confidence drops quickly.
The one game where the Ducks are clearly the underdog is the trip to Ohio State in Week 10. ESPN pegs Oregon’s chances at 13.1%, down from 16.2%.
Ohio State will be without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, but Oregon just learned how little that can matter after losing to Illinois backup quarterback Michael Clayton. It makes sense that the Buckeyes are a heavy favorite at home, where they look like the more talented and better-coached team.
Michigan comes to Eugene in Week 11, and Oregon is still favored there too, though the edge has narrowed. The Ducks’ win probability is 77.1%, down from 81.7%. Michigan may not be dazzling, but it is sound and stout on defense, which makes this another game where Oregon’s offensive uncertainty could loom large.
The stretch doesn’t get any easier the following week. Oregon heads to Michigan State in Week 12 with an 81.2% chance to win, down from 84.1%.
It’s the most winnable game left, but it also comes on a short week and falls between the Michigan and Washington matchups. Oregon should have the talent advantage there, but that still has to show up on the field.
The regular season ends with Washington visiting in Week 13, and ESPN gives Oregon an 85.8% chance to win, down from 88.4%. Rivalry or not, that’s the kind of game where pride can still matter even when the bigger goals have slipped away.
Here’s where the FPI leaves Oregon’s season outlook: a 4.8% chance to win out, up from 3.1%; a 0.7% chance to win the conference, down from 5.3%; a 1.9% chance to make the College Football Playoff, down from 12.7%; a 0.1% chance to make the national championship, down from 1.4%; and a 0.1% chance to win the national championship, down from 0.6%.
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Oregon's Season Just Became A Much Bigger Dan Lanning Problem
The disappointment has started to pile up around a Ducks season that was supposed to look very different, and the pressure is landing squarely on Dan Lanning. Oregon has already had to absorb the loss of starting quarterback Dante Moore for the rest of the year because of a head injury, a blow that would test any offense, and the ripple effects have been felt across a team that came in with far higher expectations.
Drew Mehringers removal as offensive coordinator only sharpens the spotlight on Lanning, who is now having to recalibrate the offense on the fly. Assistant quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson has been elevated into the job, giving Oregon a new voice in a critical role at a moment when the Ducks can least afford more instability. For a program built to contend, the question is no longer just how this season turns out, but how much of the burden falls on Lanning to steady it. [Read more 🡒]
Chip Kelly Still Looms Over Oregon In A Game Ohio State Fans Know Matters
Chip Kellys name still carries real weight around Eugene, and it gets another run at Autzen Stadium on Halloween when his Northwestern offense comes in to face Oregon. Now the Wildcats offensive coordinator, Kelly has helped turn Northwestern into one of the Big Tens more productive attacks, while drawing on traces of the fast-paced ideas that once defined his Ducks teams and layering in new wrinkles of his own.
Dan Lanning knows the challenge is bigger than nostalgia. Oregon will have to sort through an offense that is familiar in some ways but far from predictable, with Kelly continuing to evolve even as his old influence lingers. For Ducks fans, it is one of those games where the opponent on the schedule is only part of the story, because the architect in the opposing booth still has a way of making his presence felt. [Read more 🡒]
Oregons New-Look Offense Faces A Huge Test Against Northwestern
The Ducks are getting a different kind of measuring stick this week, with a reshuffled offense heading into a matchup against Northwestern and its sturdy, well-schooled defense. Oregon made a change at offensive coordinator ahead of the game, and now the focus shifts to how quickly the new setup can settle in against a unit that likes to make life difficult from the first snap. Northwesterns defense usually lines up in a 4-2-5, and it brings an aggressive front seven with a secondary that can hold up behind it.
For Dylan Raiola and the Oregon offense, the challenge is finding room against a group built to squeeze plays at the line and limit clean throws downfield. Safety Robert Fitzgerald, linebacker Braydon Brus and cornerback Ore Adeyi give the Wildcats a spine on every level, which means Oregon will have to be sharp with protection, timing and any chances to create mismatches. It is the sort of test that can tell you a lot about a new-look attack, even before the final result tells the rest. [Read more 🡒]