Optimism around Oregon football is running hot as the Ducks head toward their Sept. 5 opener against Boise State, and it’s easy to see why. This team has a senior quarterback with star power, established playmakers at receiver and running back, and a defense that brings back eight starters - or nine if you include safety Koi Perich, who started in the Big Ten at Minnesota over the past two seasons.
That kind of roster usually invites big talk, and Oregon is getting plenty of it. The buzz has already drifted beyond the regular season and all the way to a possible run into the College Football Playoff championship game on Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Before the Ducks and Broncos kick off at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Autzen Stadium, here’s how the season is being projected by a few different voices.
The most common prediction for Oregon’s regular season is an 11-1 finish, with both Alec Dietz and Chris Hansen of The Register-Guard landing there at 8-1 in Big Ten play. Dietz sees the Ducks rolling through most of a manageable schedule and taking their one loss in Columbus against Ohio State, then getting another shot at the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game.
Hansen also has Oregon dropping only once, though he points to a tricky November stretch that includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State on a Friday night road trip and Washington. Still, he has the Ducks’ lone defeat coming against Ohio State.
USA Today is also at 11-1, while ESPN’s Football Power Index is a little less generous, projecting Oregon at 10-2. The computer ranks the Ducks second in the Big Ten and gives them a 23.9% shot to win the league, along with a 65.9% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.
On the conference race, Dietz and Hansen both say Oregon gets it done in the Big Ten. Dietz has the Ducks bouncing back from an early-November loss to beat Ohio State in the championship game, which would give Oregon its second conference title in three seasons and likely a top-four seed with a first-round bye. Hansen’s version is similar: Oregon heads to Indianapolis and leaves with its second Big Ten crown in three years, whether the opponent is Ohio State again or Indiana.
Not everyone is buying Oregon as the league champ. ESPN’s model says Ohio State has the best odds to win the Big Ten at 30.7%, with Oregon next at 23.9%. Bleacher Report goes a different direction entirely, picking Indiana to repeat after beating Ohio State last season, while still slotting Oregon as the first at-large bid, which would point to a loss in the title game.
Even with those differences, the playoff expectation around Oregon is loud and clear. Dietz says anything short of the College Football Playoff would be a catastrophe for a team he views as unusually experienced and deep. He notes that the Ducks have reached the CFP in each of the first two years of the expanded 12-team format and should be back for a third straight season unless injuries or bad luck intervene.
Hansen, after forecasting both an 11-1 regular season and a Big Ten title, calls the playoff answer obvious. He believes the conference championship would set Oregon up as the No. 1 seed in the CFP, just as happened in 2024, and could keep the Ducks on the West Coast for a quarterfinal game, with the Rose Bowl as the obvious possibility.
The broader projections back that up. ESPN gives Oregon a 58.8% chance to make the playoff, the third-best figure in the country, while The Athletic has the Ducks at 67%, trailing only Ohio State and Indiana in Big Ten odds.
As for the passing game, the disagreement starts with who leads the team in receiving yards. Dietz goes with Dakorien Moore, pointing to the sophomore’s speed, ball skills and upside even after injury issues limited him at times last season.
He expects Moore to get the biggest share of targets, even with Evan Stewart and Jeremiah McClellan both bringing deep-threat ability. Hansen takes Stewart, saying the fifth-year receiver has come back from a 20-month absence with confidence and the kind of talent that once made him a five-star recruit and a possible first-round NFL pick.
The final debate is a fun one: is it more likely Dante Moore wins the Heisman Trophy, or Oregon’s offensive line finally takes home the Joe Moore Award? Dietz sides with the line, saying this feels like the year the Ducks break through after being finalists several times over the past half-decade. He points to Iapani Laloulu in the middle and a starting group he sees as one of Oregon’s best under Dan Lanning.
Hansen goes the other way and picks Dante Moore for the Heisman. He says there are too many unknowns up front to trust the offensive line as the nation’s best unit, even with Laloulu anchoring it. Moore, meanwhile, already has the third-best Heisman odds at +1100, which would at least put him in New York as a finalist in December.
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Autzen Is Facing A Threat Oregon Fans Never Wanted
Autzen Stadium has long been one of the more accessible places in major college football, where generations of Oregon fans could realistically make a game part of their fall routine. That feeling is getting harder to preserve. Home ticket prices have climbed sharply in recent years, with many games now opening above $100 and the biggest matchups climbing toward the kind of figure that used to sound unthinkable for a seat in Eugene.
For Ducks fans, the concern is bigger than a single expensive Saturday. The worry is that the people who helped build Autzens atmosphere, the longtime loyal crowd that made the place feel different, could slowly get pushed out by rising costs. Oregons success has made home dates more desirable, but it has also made them less reachable for the average fan, and that tradeoff is becoming impossible to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Oregons Deep Backfield Could Become A Real Problem For Opponents
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Dan Lanning has already underscored how much depth and competition matter, especially after the challenges Oregon dealt with last season, and quarterback Dante Moore has echoed that same message from the offensive side. The bigger question now is not whether the Ducks have enough bodies at running back, but how much of that talent can translate into a problem for opponents when the rotation tightens and roles start to settle. [Read more 🡒]
Dante Moore Is Already Giving New Oregon Teammates Real Confidence
Even before the 2026 season gets rolling, Dante Moore is already becoming the kind of quarterback Oregon teammates trust quickly. Coming off a strong 2025 season, Moore has drawn praise for the accuracy and leadership that show up in the little things, the sort of qualities that matter most in a locker room full of new faces trying to settle in. Among them is transfer tight end Andrew Olesh, who arrived from Penn State and is working to build timing with Moore as he tries to carve out a role in Oregons offense.
Olesh enters a tight end group with an opening after the departure of the Ducks top player at the position, and that makes this early chemistry even more important. He is viewed as a potential contributor, but in a new setting, with a new quarterback, nothing is handed out. For Oregon, the encouraging part is that Moore seems to be giving teammates a real sense of stability already, which can go a long way for a pass catcher trying to find his place in the offense. [Read more 🡒]