Oregon’s path back into the College Football Playoff conversation is narrow, messy and heavily dependent on what happens far beyond Eugene in Week 7.
The Ducks are already carrying two losses, and at 3-2, they need a lot to break right if they want any realistic shot at getting back into the mix. The first order of business is obvious: beat Nebraska at 8:00 p.m. on Saturday.
Without that, the rest of the scoreboard watching becomes pointless. But even if Oregon takes care of its own business, the wider CFP picture still has to tilt in its favor.
Dan Lanning said after the loss to the UCLA Bruins that Oregon no longer controls its own destiny. That leaves the Ducks in scoreboard-watching mode, and it starts with several games across the country that could reshape the field around them.
The first one sits right in the Big Ten race: No. 4 Ohio State against No.
5 Indiana at 9:00 a.m. PT.
Both teams are 3-0 in conference play, but Indiana is unbeaten at 6-0 overall while Ohio State is 5-1 after losing at Texas earlier this season. Oregon would benefit from an Indiana win in more ways than one.
A second loss for Ohio State would give the Buckeyes their first Big Ten defeat and make it easier for the Ducks to push them out of both the conference-title picture and, potentially, the playoff race later on. If Oregon beats Ohio State at The Shoe in three weeks, that scenario becomes even more useful.
Indiana staying unbeaten and pulling away at the top would also help Oregon.
Another key game for Oregon’s CFP outlook comes out of the Notre Dame-BYU matchup at 4:30 p.m. PT.
Oregon should be pulling hard for Notre Dame on the road. The Irish are 6-0 and have only a handful of games that could trip them up, with Miami and SMU still looming after BYU.
If Notre Dame were to lose here, it becomes even more important for them to take another loss later and avoid stacking up as a 10-2 team that could sit alongside Oregon in December. There’s also a broader Big 12 angle here.
The league currently has three teams in the top 12 - BYU at No. 8, Texas Tech at No. 10 and Utah at No. 11 - and if the Big 12 gets two teams into the CFP field, that would be a major problem for a potentially 10-2 Oregon.
The Big Ten has another game worth watching in Wisconsin against No. 12 UCLA, also at 4:30 p.m.
PT at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, with NBC carrying the broadcast. UCLA lost quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a season-ending injury against Oregon, but the Bruins still have one of the nation’s best run games.
They’re 5-0 overall and 3-0 in Big Ten play, and their schedule lines up in a way that makes them a legitimate threat to crash the CFP picture. Wisconsin enters at 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big Ten and would be a useful spoiler.
The Badgers have been better than expected, but they still have USC and Iowa coming up next. UCLA, meanwhile, does not see another ranked opponent until the regular-season finale against USC.
Oregon needs the Bruins to take losses and Wisconsin is one of the few realistic chances left on their schedule.
Then there’s Arizona State against No. 10 Texas Tech, a game that matters because of the same Big 12 logjam.
This one is at Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Oregon would love to see Texas Tech take its first loss before the Big 12 title game.
Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils are 3-2 and have shown both upside and inconsistency on offense, but if everything clicks, they have enough to trouble a Red Raiders team that has ridden a 5-0 start to the No. 10 spot. Texas Tech is a team Oregon needs to see collect more losses, not fewer.
The SEC also offers Oregon a useful result to root for in Florida vs. No.
7 Texas at 9:00 a.m. PT in Austin, with ABC televising the game.
This is the kind of league matchup that tends to sort itself out by piling losses onto teams in the middle of the conference. Florida is already in rough shape after two straight losses, while Texas has only one defeat, coming against Oklahoma.
If Florida can beat the Longhorns, Texas would suddenly be staring at a difficult stretch that includes Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU over the next month. On the flip side, Florida winning would likely send the Gators back into the top 25, though they still have Georgia, Oklahoma and Kentucky ahead - a run that looks unlikely to end without more damage on their record.
For Oregon, the formula is simple even if the road is not: win out, and hope the right teams keep winning while the teams ahead of them start falling.
In Other News...
Dan Lanning Just Changed Oregons Biggest Nebraska Game Storyline
Dylan Raiola had been trending into a more central role for Oregon after his strong showing against USC, but the momentum stalled quickly in the next game against UCLA. Now Dan Lanning has made the call to keep Brock Thomas in the starting job against Nebraska, a move that shifts one of the biggest storylines of the week and changes how the Ducks will approach a matchup with Raiolas former team.
Lanning pointed to Raiolas recent performance and the adjustments Oregon has made on offense as the reasons behind the decision, which gives the Ducks a clearer picture heading into a game that already carried plenty of extra intrigue. For Raiola, the opportunity to face Nebraska will still be there, but it comes with a different role than many expected when the schedule first set up this reunion. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Commit Brayton Feister Is Back On The Field Amid Dispute
Brayton Feister is back on the field at Massillon Washington High School after the Fifth District Court of Appeals ruled that he and his brother Brydon are eligible to play, overturning the Ohio High School Athletic Associations earlier ineligibility decision. The brothers had been sidelined over transfer and disciplinary issues, but the latest ruling granted them a preliminary permanent injunction and cleared the way for them to continue their senior season.
For Oregon, it means one of its commitments is once again taking part in the kind of late-season football that can matter in more than one way, from development to momentum before the next level. The OHSAA still has the option to keep fighting the case, so the legal side of the story is not necessarily finished, but for now Feister is back where he wants to be, and that is on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Heads Home With One Big Problem Against Nebraska
Oregon heads into its Week 7 home game against Nebraska trying to regroup after a 17-15 loss to UCLA pushed the Ducks out of the rankings. The trip back to Autzen Stadium brings a familiar sort of pressure, with a favored team expected to rebound quickly and get its season pointed back in the right direction.
The bigger issue, though, is still unsettled at quarterback. Oregon has multiple players competing for the job and has not named a starter, leaving the Ducks to sort out the most important spot on the field before a nationally televised matchup on Fox and the Fox Sports app. Against a Nebraska team coming in with a chance to test Oregon early, the Ducks will be looking for answers as much as a win. [Read more 🡒]