Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes looked shaky after that third loss, but the Ducks are suddenly back in the conversation after beating then-ranked No. 20 Northwestern.
The road ahead is still steep, and Saturday’s trip to face No. 12 Ohio State may be the kind of game that decides whether Dan Lanning’s team stays alive or slips back out of the picture.
The CFP Selection Committee placed Oregon at No. 23 in its opening rankings, and the formula from here is simple: win out. Even that might not be enough to guarantee a spot in the 12-team field, but ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit believes the Ducks can still make noise if they handle the Buckeyes.
While appearing on The Pat McAfee Show on ESPN, Herbstreit pointed to Oregon as a team that could crash the playoff race late.
"Because there’s gonna be three-loss teams that are probably gonna be stacked up there in early December, right? Who knows if there’s gonna be one, two, three.
Who knows how many might get in. But if you look down there in the 20s.
I was looking at Oregon. Everybody gave up on Oregon, said their season’s over.
They’re terrible. Fire everybody.
They just got a big win last week, and I’m not saying they’re going to go to Columbus and win."
He kept going, making clear he wasn’t predicting an upset, just mapping out the door it would open.
"But if they did, even with three losses, they would set themselves up to have a shot, if they win in Columbus, they’d have a real shot to win out. And they’d be sitting there at 9-3.
I think you have to look at teams like that, like who could come on late if they have a big win this weekend? I think Oregon falls into that category."
Herbstreit had already seen the opening after the first rankings came out, saying on Tuesday that Oregon’s path would exist if the Ducks could keep stacking wins.
"They find a way to beat a top 20 team in Northwestern. Now they got Ohio State on the road.
I'm not saying they're going to win. I'm just saying if somehow, some way, they figure out a way to knock off Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington.
I feel like there's a path,"
That stretch is what remains in front of Oregon in November, and it starts with the Buckeyes before moving on to Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. Herbstreit’s view is that a late surge is still possible, even if the odds are long.
The betting markets are far less optimistic. DraftKings has Ohio State favored by 7.5 points on Saturday, while FanDuel lists Oregon at +1200 to reach the CFP, behind teams such as Arizona and South Carolina.
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Oregon Faces One Huge Test In Columbus With Playoff Stakes Rising
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The Buckeyes still have a few names on the doubtful list, including some wide receivers and a linebacker, but oddsmakers still have Ohio State favored at home. For Oregon, the setting alone makes this a major test, and the injury picture only adds to the challenge of trying to leave Columbus with a statement win and keep playoff hopes on the strongest possible footing. [Read more 🡒]