Ohio State’s path to the College Football Playoff has gone from shaky to nearly invisible.
No. 23 Oregon went into Ohio Stadium on Saturday and left with a 41-28 win over No.
12 Ohio State, a result that shook up both the Big Ten race and the playoff picture. The Ducks improved to 6-3 overall and 4-2 in conference play, while the Buckeyes fell to the same mark and now sit in a far more uncomfortable spot.
The loss also came with a harsh reality attached: Ohio State is now 0-2 with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey starting in place of injured Julian Sayin, who is out indefinitely with an arm injury. That matters because the Buckeyes still have one of the best strength-of-schedules in the FBS, but the margin for error is basically gone.
For a while, Saturday started the right way for Ohio State. Bo Jackson scored on a pair of first-quarter touchdown runs, and the Buckeyes jumped out to a 14-0 lead after coming off a 30-18 loss to No.
20 USC in Week 9. But the game flipped fast.
Oregon took over in the second quarter and never really let go. The Ducks scored 17 points in the period and out-gained Ohio State 178-17. Fahey, who had been 8 of 11 for 142 yards in the first quarter, managed just one passing yard in the second and threw a costly interception to Devin Jackson with 1:06 left in the half.
That turnover turned into points on the final play before halftime. Dan Lanning chose to run a play with two seconds left, Jamari Johnson motioned under center, and the tight end finished a 2-yard touchdown run to give Oregon a 17-14 lead.
The Ducks kept pouring it on after the break. Dierre Hill Jr. broke loose for a 49-yard touchdown run with 13:11 left in the third quarter, pushing the lead to 24-14.
From there, Ohio State couldn’t recover. Fahey later missed Devin McCuin on a fourth-and-2 from the Ohio State 42, and Oregon pulled away behind Dylan Raiola, who finished 25 of 40 for 257 yards and threw touchdown passes to Dakorien Moore and Brandon Smith.
Jeremiah Smith did what he could, finishing with seven catches for 133 yards and a late fourth-quarter touchdown, but much of that production came after the outcome was already decided. Ohio State’s defense, meanwhile, was beaten up for the second straight week.
At this point, the playoff question feels less like a debate and more like a verdict. The Buckeyes will not make the College Football Playoff as an at-large team. The committee signaled that already by placing them at No. 12 in the first CFP rankings, and the loss to Oregon only deepened the hole.
This was also a damaging day in the larger context of Ryan Day’s tenure. Ohio State had been 50-3 at home under Day before Saturday’s blowout, and this defeat at The Shoe lands in the same category as the home losses to Michigan in 2022 and 2024. The Buckeyes have not lost three regular-season games since 2011, which makes this one of the low points of the Day era.
So what has to happen now? Ohio State needs the Big Ten to turn into a two-loss mess.
No. 8 UCLA is moving closer to the conference championship game at 9-0 overall and 6-0 in league play, while No.
4 Indiana is now a game ahead of the Buckeyes at 8-1 and 5-1. That matters because Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 on Oct.
The Buckeyes do have a win over No. 19 Iowa, but the losses to No.
7 Texas, USC and now Oregon have stacked up. Their only real route back is a berth in the Big Ten championship game, and even that looks like a long shot because they lose head-to-head tiebreakers with two-loss USC and two-loss Oregon.
Right now, it looks like too much to overcome.
In Other News...
Dan Lannings Aggression Just Put Ohio State On Notice
Oregon spent the first quarter in a hole against Ohio State, but the Ducks did not spend long playing it safe. A successful fake punt helped flip the tone, and Dan Lannings group kept leaning into an aggressive approach on offense until it had clawed its way to a 17-14 halftime lead, a swing that said as much about confidence as it did about execution.
Afterward, Lanning framed the performance around identity, stressing that Oregon has to keep playing like itself if it wants to keep putting pressure on elite opponents. He also pointed to the need to cut down on turnovers, a reminder that the Ducks boldness only works if it is paired with cleaner football, and that balance will matter even more as the stakes keep rising. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon May Need One Freshman To Change Everything Against Ohio State
As Oregon turns its attention to Ohio State, the Ducks are looking for ways to crack a defense that has been especially sturdy against the run. That puts a spotlight on true freshman Brandon Smith, whose performance against Northwestern stood out not just for the production on the ground, but for the way he added another layer to the offense with his work in the passing game.
Smiths rise matters even more because Oregon is dealing with injuries at running back, which narrows the options against a Buckeyes front that does not give much away. If the Ducks are going to find an answer in a game like this, they may need the kind of burst and versatility Smith showed in his first real opportunity to make a difference. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Faces One Huge Test In Columbus With Playoff Stakes Rising
Oregon heads into Columbus for one of the seasons biggest measuring-stick games, and both sides are carrying injury questions into a matchup that already has plenty riding on it. The Ducks will be without starting running back Jordon Davison, but they do get wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan back after his injury absence, a small boost for an offense that will need every available piece against an Ohio State defense that is expected to have defensive back Jay Timmons and offensive tackle Ian Moore back in the lineup.
The Buckeyes still have a few names on the doubtful list, including some wide receivers and a linebacker, but oddsmakers still have Ohio State favored at home. For Oregon, the setting alone makes this a major test, and the injury picture only adds to the challenge of trying to leave Columbus with a statement win and keep playoff hopes on the strongest possible footing. [Read more 🡒]