Oregon enters the preseason with plenty of buzz, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is keeping the Ducks a step behind the very top of the sport.
Dan Lanning’s team comes in at No. 4 in the FPI, tucked behind Ohio State at No. 1, Texas at No. 2 and Notre Dae at No.
- The model gives Oregon 10.2 projected wins and 2.3 projected losses, along with an 8.5 percent shot to run the table and a 9.8 percent chance to win the National Championship.
ESPN’s projection also pegs the Ducks at a 64.7 percent chance to reach the CFP and a 24.2 percent chance to win the Big Ten.
That No. 4 spot still puts Oregon in the hunt, but the Buckeyes are the team the Ducks are chasing. Ohio State is coming off a CFP quarterfinal loss and returns starting quarterback Julian Sayin, a 2025 Heisman Trophy finalist, plus receiver Jeremiah Smith. The two teams meet in Columbus in 2026, a game that figures to carry major weight in the postseason picture and in the FPI race.
Oregon does sit ahead of Indiana, which checks in at No. 6. That matters because the Hoosiers beat the Ducks in the semifinals and went on to win their first National Championship, but they now have to move forward without Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who left for the NFL, along with other key pieces.
The rest of the Big Ten is spread out further down the list. USC is No.
13, Michigan No. 15, Penn State No. 17 and Iowa No. 25, giving the conference five teams in the preseason top 25 besides Oregon and Indiana.
For the Ducks, the schedule leaves little margin for error. They face only three teams ranked in the preseason FPI top 25, which could make it harder to climb to the top of the model - and the AP top 25 - unless they keep stacking wins.
A victory over Ohio State would send Oregon soaring in the FPI, while a loss to a lower-ranked opponent would drag the Ducks down quickly. Wins over Michigan, USC and Ohio State will go a long way toward shaping Oregon’s CFP seed and its confidence against elite competition.
There is at least one encouraging sign for Oregon in the numbers: the Ducks are starting from a better preseason spot than they did a year ago. They opened 2025 at No. 6 in the preseason FPI, and Lanning’s team climbed during the season before a first loss to Indiana sent them tumbling.
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Dante Moore Got Pulled Into Oregons EA Sports Launch Day Mess
EA Sports College Football 2027 arrived on July 9 with plenty of buzz around Oregon, where quarterback Dante Moore is among the thousands of real athletes included in the game. The launch also immediately sparked the sort of online chatter that tends to follow a big sports release, especially when player likenesses start getting compared with their real-world counterparts and some models, including several Ducks, begin making the rounds for all the wrong reasons.
Moore also got dragged into the noise by a parody post that falsely claimed he was pulling out of the game over microtransactions, a rumor that spread fast enough to need correcting. It was a strange bit of launch-day confusion for a player whose name carries extra weight in the game, and it came as fans were already venting about the new currency system and the price of getting into the latest edition. [Read more 🡒]
Cal Fans Wont Love How Oregons Receiver Haul Is Being Framed
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The part Cal fans probably wont love is how that receiver group is being stacked up against programs like Cal, Florida and Texas A&M while Oregons own depth in the room is still easy to overlook. One recent framing left out Walden Jr. entirely even though he is committed to the Ducks and brings the kind of flexibility that can change how the class is viewed. For Oregon, it is another reminder that the recruiting picture is getting bigger by the week, and the receiver conversation may not be done yet. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Lanning Is Suddenly Closing In On Oregon History
Dan Lannings rise in Eugene has been steady enough that it is starting to look historic, and the preseason buzz around him reflects that. The Oregon coach landed on the watch list for the 2026 Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year award, a nod that goes beyond wins and losses and weighs the broader standard of scholarship, leadership and integrity that comes with it.
The timing only adds to the intrigue because Oregon enters the season with real momentum and real expectations, from Dante Moore and starting center Iapani Laloulu back in the fold to an entire defensive line returning. Add in the transfer additions and a top-five recruiting class, and Lanning has the kind of roster that can keep pushing his program forward while the schedule still leaves room for statement tests that could shape how his season is remembered. [Read more 🡒]