What was billed as one of the season’s marquee showdowns has lost a lot of its shine by the time Oregon and Ohio State get to Columbus.
Back in the preseason, the Ducks and Buckeyes opened at No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP Poll, and the November meeting looked like a heavyweight battle with national title implications. That’s not the picture now. Both teams have lost their potential 1st round pick quarterbacks to long-term injuries, and the records have slipped too: Oregon is 5-3, while Ohio State sits at 6-2.
Even with those changes, the betting market still came out swinging. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Ohio State as a 10.5-point favorite (-102), with the Buckeyes listed at -375 on the moneyline. Oregon is +280 to win outright, and the total is set at 44.5 points, with the over at -112 and the under at -108.
That number is hard to square with what Ohio State just put on tape. The Buckeyes were coming off their first full game without Julian Sayin and had two weeks to get ready, but USC controlled the game anyway. Ohio State fell 30-18, and a late touchdown from Jeremiah Smith made the final margin look a little cleaner than the game actually felt.
Luke Fahey went 21-30 for 260 yards and a touchdown, which was solid enough on paper, but the Buckeyes had bigger problems than quarterback play alone. The receivers dropped passes, the offense never really found a rhythm, and USC was able to put up 30 points with a strong ground attack. Even the Ohio State defense, usually the safer part of the equation, showed some cracks.
Oregon, meanwhile, comes in off a much better result. The Ducks beat Northwestern behind a strong performance from Dylan Raiola, and the offense got a noticeable lift after Drew Mehringer was fired and Jay Johnson took over as play-caller. Under Johnson, Oregon got past the 20-point mark for the first time since September.
That’s why this matchup now looks more like a grind than a showcase. Both teams still have dangerous weapons and defenses capable of shutting down an opponent, but the quarterback situation on each side makes the whole thing feel far less explosive than it did a few months ago.
There’s also plenty riding on it. Ohio State may be playing for its College Football Playoff life, since a third loss could knock the Buckeyes out of the mix. Oregon already has three losses, but it would love to spoil things and keep itself in the conversation if chaos elsewhere opens a path back in.
So no, this doesn’t look like the blockbuster it once did. But with the way both projected starting quarterbacks have looked, expecting a blowout would be a mistake.
In Other News...
Oregons Win Brought Back Chip Kelly And A New Offensive Concern
Oregons comeback win over Northwestern at Autzen carried a little extra edge because Chip Kelly was back on the sideline, this time as the Wildcats offensive coordinator and not the coach who once helped define the Ducks modern identity. After Oregon pulled out the 34-26 victory, Kelly spent time postgame with Dan Lanning and Dante Moore, a reminder of how much history still hangs around these matchups even when the uniforms have changed.
The bigger concern for Oregon may have been what happened on the field, where running back Jordon Davison left with a leg injury and is expected to have his status updated soon. In a game the Ducks had to climb back into, any injury in the backfield adds another layer of uncertainty as they move deeper into the season, especially with the offense still trying to settle in after a physical opener. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Just Landed A Surprising New Name In Its OC Search
Florida States decision to fire Mike Norvell after the loss to Clemson has already sent ripples through the coaching carousel, and it comes at a moment when Oregon is trying to steady its own offensive staff. The Ducks recently moved on from offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, leaving Dan Lanning with a major hire to make as the program continues to chase stability and continuity on that side of the ball.
Norvells name has now surfaced in the discussion around Oregons opening, largely because of his previous working relationship with Lanning. It is still only speculation, but it adds an unexpected wrinkle to a search that figures to draw plenty of attention, especially if Oregon wants an experienced voice with ties to its head coach rather than a more conventional outside candidate. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Suddenly Has A Real AP Poll Problem
The latest AP Poll is headed for a shakeup after USC, still unranked, stunned No. 2 Ohio State and sent ripples through the top of the rankings. Oregon and Iowa, both of whom had fallen out of the poll, also took care of business in their recent games, putting themselves back in the conversation as voters sort through a weekend that featured wins from Georgia and Texas Tech along with a handful of losses elsewhere.
For Oregon, the timing matters. A strong response after dropping out of the rankings can quickly change the tone around a team in a crowded Big Ten race, and the Ducks now have a realistic path back into the poll when the new rankings are released. With so many results moving in different directions, the bigger question is how far the reshuffle goes and which teams get caught in the middle of it. [Read more 🡒]