**College Football Playoff Showdown: No. 4 Texas Tech vs.
No. 5 Oregon - What to Watch in the Orange Bowl**
The College Football Playoff quarterfinal stage is set, and we’ve got a heavyweight clash to kick things off. No.
4 Texas Tech and No. 5 Oregon will square off in the Orange Bowl on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium, with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Both teams enter with identical 12-1 records, and this one has all the makings of a classic - high-level quarterback play, elite trench battles, and game-breaking talent on both sides of the ball.
Let’s break down what to watch for in this marquee matchup, with insights into Texas Tech’s key players, how they match up with Oregon, and what could ultimately decide this game.
Behren Morton’s Bounce-Back Ability Will Be Tested
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton has been steady and efficient for most of the season, but he’s had his moments of adversity - particularly against two of the more physical defenses he faced in BYU and Utah. Those two units made life difficult, limiting chunk plays and forcing Morton into tight windows.
Against Utah back in September, Morton threw two interceptions - but context matters. One was a contested end-zone shot, the other a tipped ball.
Since then? Just one pick.
He’s tightened up his decision-making, and that’s been key during Tech’s late-season surge.
BYU’s pressure was a factor in both matchups, sacking Morton six times across two games. But it wasn’t just about pressure - Tech’s red-zone efficiency stalled too. The Red Raiders had to settle for 11 field-goal attempts in those games, prompting head coach Joey McGuire to dub the red zone the “No-Stone Zone” in honor of kicker Stone Harrington, who’s been money all season.
If Oregon can replicate that physicality up front and force field goals instead of touchdowns, they’ll have a real shot. But don’t count Morton out - he’s shown he can adapt, and he’s got the weapons to do damage.
The Thunder and Lightning Backfield: Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams
Texas Tech’s backfield tandem brings a little bit of everything. Cameron Dickey is the power back - 5'10", 215 pounds, built to grind out tough yards between the tackles. He wasn’t a highly touted recruit, but he’s turned into a 1,000-yard rusher and a steady presence in the offense.
Then there’s J’Koby Williams, the lightning to Dickey’s thunder. At 5'9", 185, he’s electric in space and a nightmare for defenders in one-on-one situations. He’s the guy you scheme touches for - screens, swing passes, jet sweeps - anything to get him in the open field.
Both backs are capable receivers, but Williams is the bigger threat after the catch. He’s got seven receptions of 25+ yards this season - all short passes that he turned into big plays. Oregon’s tackling in space is going to be tested early and often.
David Bailey: From Off-Ball to Edge Terror
One of the biggest transformations this season has been David Bailey’s shift from off-ball linebacker at Stanford to full-time edge rusher at Texas Tech. And the move has paid off - big time.
Bailey has exploded for 13.5 sacks this season, nearly doubling his total from last year. He credits the scheme change and the coaching of C.J. Ah You, his position coach, for unlocking a new level in his game.
He’s not just a stat-stuffer either - Bailey consistently affects the pocket, even when he doesn’t get home. Oregon’s offensive line, one of the best in the country, will have their hands full trying to keep him out of the backfield.
Jacob Rodriguez Is Chasing Greatness - and Catching It
When you start comparing a college linebacker to Zach Thomas - a Pro Football Hall of Famer - you better have the resume to back it up. Jacob Rodriguez does.
Rodriguez has stacked up awards like few defenders ever have: Butkus Award, Nagurski Trophy, Bednarik Award, Lombardi Award, unanimous All-America honors, and a top-five finish in the Heisman voting. That’s not just elite - that’s historic.
Statistically, he’s been a force of nature: seven forced fumbles, four interceptions, and a presence all over the field. While Thomas remains the gold standard for what he did in the NFL, Rodriguez’s 2025 season stands as arguably the best ever by a Texas Tech defender.
He’ll be the heartbeat of the Red Raiders’ defense in this one, and if he makes a couple of splash plays, it could swing the game.
Trench Warfare: The Matchup to Watch
Forget the skill players for a moment - this game could be decided in the trenches. Oregon’s offensive line has been one of the most consistent units in college football, but they’re about to face a Texas Tech front that features multiple future NFL players, led by Bailey and a disruptive rotation up front.
This is where the game could tilt. If Oregon can protect their quarterback and establish the run, they can control tempo. But if Tech’s front gets pressure and forces third-and-longs, that’s where Rodriguez and the rest of the defense can pin their ears back.
Prediction: A Heavyweight Battle with Playoff Stakes
Both teams have explosive offenses, but don’t overlook the defenses - they’ve got playmakers too. This one could come down to which team avoids the big turnover and who finishes drives in the red zone.
Expect a physical, tightly contested game with momentum swings and a playoff-level intensity from the opening kickoff. The best-on-best matchup?
Oregon’s O-line versus Texas Tech’s D-line. That’s where this game could be won or lost.
Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20.
Buckle up - this one’s going to be a battle.