In today's Big Ten Tournament opener, the No. 17 seed Maryland Terrapins face off against the No. 16 seed Oregon Ducks, with tip-off set for 5 pm ET on Peacock. The winner will advance to face No. 9 seed Iowa in the second round, while the loser's season will come to an end.
Earlier this season, Oregon bested Maryland 64-54 in College Park. Both teams had high hopes coming into the season after impressive tournament runs last spring, but injuries have taken their toll. Maryland lost their top scorer, Pharrel Payne, to a leg injury in December, while Oregon's star guard, Jackson Shelstad, has been sidelined with a severe hand injury.
Let's dive into the numbers and matchups to understand what to expect in this clash.
Maryland vs. Oregon Odds
Here's how the odds stack up:
- Point Spread: Maryland +4.5 (-111), Oregon -4.5 (-109)
- Moneyline: Maryland +151, Oregon -182
- Total (O/U): 138.5 points
For those new to sports betting, Oregon is the favorite, needing to win by at least five points to cover the spread. Maryland, as the underdog, can cover by winning outright or losing by four points or fewer. The total points for the game are projected at 138.5.
When we break down the moneyline odds, Oregon has a 61.8% chance of winning, while Maryland has a 38.2% chance of pulling off an upset. A $5 bet on Oregon at -182 would net a $2.75 profit if they win. Conversely, a $5 wager on Maryland at +151 would return $7.55 if they secure the victory.
Maryland vs. Oregon Tale of the Tape
- Overall Record: Maryland 11-20, Oregon 12-19
- Big Ten Record: Maryland 4-16, Oregon 5-15
- RPI Ranking: Maryland 174, Oregon 156
- Strength of Schedule (SOS): Maryland .562, Oregon .572
Both teams faced tough seasons without breaking into the AP Top 25. Oregon's slightly better RPI ranking reflects their marginally tougher schedule.
Best Bet: Oregon -3.5
For those eyeing the betting window, the point spread is intriguing. The recommendation is to take Oregon to cover the -3.5 spread, priced at $0.54 per contract at Kalshi, equivalent to -117 odds. A $20 investment would yield an $18 profit if Oregon covers.
Here's why Oregon -3.5 is appealing:
- Oregon defeated Maryland by 10 points earlier this season without their star guard, Shelstad.
- Maryland is on a four-game losing streak, struggling to find form.
- Despite Maryland's Solomon Washington posting impressive numbers, including three consecutive double-doubles, it wasn't enough in their last encounter.
In a matchup between two unranked teams with similar schedules, Oregon's slight edge and coach Dana Altman's tournament experience make them a solid pick to cover the spread.