ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is leaning toward USC in Saturday’s Big Ten showdown with Oregon, and he’s doing it with the kind of confidence that comes from trusting the Trojans’ offense to keep humming.
On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy called for No. 12 USC to beat No.
20 Oregon 34-31 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in the 7:30 p.m. ET game on NBC.
“We do not see Oregon keeping this offense under 28 in the Coliseum,” McElroy said.
That pick comes with real weight. USC enters at 4-0 after a 42-35 win at Rutgers in its conference opener, while Oregon sits at 2-1 following a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State. The Ducks did beat the Trojans 42-27 last November in Eugene, but McElroy believes this matchup tilts the other way.
A big part of his reasoning starts with USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, who leads the country with 1,173 passing yards and has thrown 12 touchdowns against one interception. He was sharp at Rutgers, going for 277 yards and two scores, while King Miller added 102 rushing yards.
Protection has been a major separator, too. “He plays behind a line that's allowed just two sacks in four games,” McElroy said.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, meanwhile, has had a tougher time staying clean. “Oregon has been sacked seven times in the first three games. That's the difference between these two quarterbacks right now,” McElroy said.
Moore was held to 14 of 29 passing for 191 yards in Stillwater, then answered with 280 yards and four touchdowns on 19 of 23 completions in an 84-0 win over Portland State.
McElroy also likes USC’s ability to stay on schedule. “They are great on third down. They are 30 of 48,” McElroy said.
The Oregon side of the equation still has some numbers in its favor. The Ducks have seven takeaways, while USC has five giveaways.
McElroy said that could loom large in a tight game. “In a game that's this close on paper, a single short field could determine the outcome,” McElroy said.
There are also injury questions on both sides. USC freshman receiver Trent Mosley missed the Rutgers game with a knee injury and is not expected to play Saturday.
Mosley had 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns in his first three games. With him out, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads the Trojans with 258 receiving yards.
Oregon will be without wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan, and tight end Jamari Johnson’s status remains unclear after he missed two straight games. McElroy pointed to another possible name stepping up if McClellan can’t go. “If McClellan's down, then it could be Messiah Hampton, who caught two touchdowns against Portland State,” McElroy said.
Still, McElroy kept coming back to USC’s advantages up front and on third down. “USC has the better protection.
They have the better third-down offense. They have the home crowd,” McElroy said.
His pick would send Lincoln Riley’s team to 5-0 and leave Oregon 0-1 in Big Ten play. McElroy also tied his call to a pair of streaks involving Ducks coach Dan Lanning.
“He is 43-0 when his defense allows fewer than 28 points,” McElroy said. “USC has not scored fewer than 39 in any game this year.”
He added another note about Oregon’s defense and pass rush. “Lanning is 19-0 when his defense records three or more sacks,” McElroy said. “Oregon has just four sacks this year.”
That’s the backdrop for one of Week 4’s biggest games: USC with the firepower, Oregon with the urgency, and McElroy betting the Trojans can win the shootout.
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