Oregon Ducks Eye Playoff Matchup as CFP Scenarios Take Shape
After a narrow loss to No. 2 Indiana earlier in the season, Oregon has responded with the kind of fire you want to see from a playoff hopeful.
The Ducks have rattled off six straight wins, including statement victories over Iowa, USC, and Washington. Now sitting at 11-1, Oregon is ranked No. 6 in the latest AP Top 25 and riding serious momentum heading into the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection window.
With the CFP rankings set to drop Tuesday night, there’s a real shot the Ducks climb even higher. Texas A&M’s recent stumble and coaching shakeups around the country could open the door for Oregon to move up.
One thing’s nearly certain: barring total chaos, Oregon won’t fall below No. 7.
That means one thing for Ducks fans-Autzen Stadium is likely hosting a playoff game.
Let’s break down the three most likely first-round matchups Oregon could be staring at once the dust settles after conference championship weekend.
Scenario 1: Alabama Comes to Eugene
This one has all the makings of a playoff classic. If Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but still finds a way into the playoff field-and history tells us that’s very possible-the Tide could be heading west to face Oregon in Eugene.
The potential for a Dan Lanning vs. Kalen DeBoer rematch adds another layer to the drama. Lanning, now firmly entrenched at Oregon, could get a second shot at DeBoer, who led Washington last season and now commands the Alabama sideline.
If Oregon lands at No. 7 and Alabama sits at No. 10, or if the Ducks stay at No. 6 and the Tide drop to No. 11, the math lines up for this matchup. The wild card? If Alabama stuns Georgia and takes the SEC crown, they’ll likely vault up the rankings and out of Oregon’s bracket entirely.
Still, the idea of Alabama walking into Autzen Stadium for a playoff game? That’s the kind of clash that defines this new era of the CFP.
*“We went out there and played and won games, like that's what you have to do to get there. It's not supposed to be easy.
It's supposed to be hard. The whole season matters.”
Dan Lanning on the Ducks’ playoff push
Scenario 2: Virginia Makes the Trip
If Alabama stays out of Oregon’s path, another possibility is Virginia. The Cavaliers are in the ACC Championship Game after a wild shakeup that saw Miami eliminated from contention. If Virginia beats Duke-who comes in at 7-5-the Cavaliers would be 10-2 and likely land a playoff spot.
Depending on how the rankings fall, Virginia could be slotted at No. 10 or 11. If Oregon holds at No. 6 or slips to No. 7, this becomes a very realistic matchup.
This wouldn’t have the same national buzz as Alabama-Oregon, but don’t sleep on it. Virginia has quietly put together a strong campaign, and their physical style could test Oregon’s speed and versatility.
Scenario 3: Ducks vs. the Group of Five Champion
Here’s where things could get interesting. If Oregon climbs to No. 5, they’ll face the lowest-ranked team in the field-most likely the top Group of Five champion. Right now, that points to Tulane, who’s in the AAC title game against North Texas.
A matchup with Tulane would be a first-ever meeting between the two programs. And while Oregon would be favored, this is the kind of game that can turn into a trap if the Ducks aren’t locked in. Tulane’s been here before and knows how to punch above its weight.
There’s also a chance North Texas pulls the upset and grabs the auto-bid. Or, if Duke shocks Virginia in the ACC title game, it could open the door for another Group of Five team like James Madison to sneak in.
The bottom line? If Oregon ends up at No. 5, they’ll get the No. 12 seed-whoever that ends up being. And that means a playoff game in Eugene against a team with nothing to lose.
What’s Next for Oregon
At 11-1 and riding a six-game win streak, Oregon is peaking at the right time. This is the third straight 11-win season for the Ducks, and head coach Dan Lanning has this team playing with confidence, balance, and a chip on their shoulder.
Whether it’s Alabama, Virginia, or a Group of Five upstart, the Ducks are in prime position to make a run. The only thing left is to see how the committee sorts it all out on Tuesday night.
But one thing’s for sure-Autzen Stadium is about to host something special.