With the final College Football Playoff rankings before Selection Sunday now out, the postseason picture is starting to take shape - and Oregon is right in the thick of it. After a statement win over rival Washington, the Ducks have climbed to No. 5 in the committee’s latest rankings. Sitting ahead of them are Ohio State and Indiana at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, followed by Georgia at No. 3 and Texas Tech rounding out the top four.
Now, here’s where things get interesting. In a twist that only the expanded playoff era could deliver, the No. 5 seed might actually be the sweet spot - and Oregon might be just fine staying put.
Why? Because the No. 5 team avoids the wear and tear of a conference championship game, which means no risk of key injuries or last-minute upsets.
And unlike a top-four seed, they don’t sit around for weeks waiting to play. Instead, they get a first-round home game against a lower-ranked opponent - often a team that’s boosted into the playoff by conference tie-ins rather than raw resume strength.
That’s exactly how Penn State made a surprise run to the semifinals last year. They didn’t have to win a conference title, just handle business at home - and they did, until they ran into a buzzsaw.
So while Oregon is undoubtedly focused on the big prize, they might not be in a rush to jump into the top four. A move up would mean a first-round bye, but also a longer layoff and a tougher semifinal matchup.
Of course, chaos could still throw a wrench into everything. The committee has said that losing a conference championship game won’t automatically knock a team down in the rankings - but we’ve seen before how injuries or poor performances can change the calculus.
Just ask Florida State, who went undefeated in 2023 but lost their quarterback and got left out.
Still, Oregon’s playoff spot looks secure. Even if one of the teams behind them - like Alabama, BYU, or Virginia - wins a Power Four title, there’s too much ground to make up. The Ducks have built a strong enough resume that even a chaotic championship weekend likely won’t push them out of the top 12.
According to FanDuel, the three Big Ten squads - Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon - are essentially locked in. The Ducks are currently listed at +1000 to win the national title, with Ohio State and Indiana leading the odds at +185 and +380, respectively.
That said, not all paths are created equal. The worst-case scenario for Oregon?
Alabama wins the SEC, and Texas Tech holds serve in their title game. That combination likely locks the current top four in place and opens the door for Alabama - and maybe even a team like Oklahoma or Ole Miss, depending on how the dominoes fall - to sneak up the rankings.
That could push Oregon out of the No. 5 spot and into a less favorable position.
For now, though, the Ducks are sitting in a spot that might be more advantageous than it appears. With a home game likely on deck and a clear path to the semifinals, Oregon could be poised to make a serious run - without ever needing to play for a conference crown.