In college hoops, the 5-12 matchup is where dreams go to die-or get reborn. It’s a March Madness staple: the underdog bites, and suddenly a Cinderella story is born.
But college football? That’s a different animal entirely.
The 5-seed in the College Football Playoff doesn’t get a trap game. It gets a home game-and a golden opportunity.
Right now, that 5-seed belongs to Oregon. And if the current College Football Playoff rankings hold, the Ducks would host the highest-ranked Group of Five champion at Autzen Stadium on December 19 or 20.
That’s not a matchup to overlook, but it’s one Oregon would take in a heartbeat. A home playoff game in front of 54,000 roaring fans, with the Ducks’ speed and tempo on full display?
That’s the kind of stage they want.
But here’s the thing: Championship Week is coming, and it could blow the current bracket wide open.
Let’s start with what we know. Oregon is sitting ahead of Ole Miss and Texas A&M-two teams that are done playing and can’t add anything else to their résumés.
That’s good news for the Ducks. But the real chaos potential comes from the games still on deck.
BYU, sitting at No. 11, takes on No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.
Both teams are 11-1. If BYU pulls the upset-and yes, the Red Raiders are 12.5-point favorites, but this is college football we’re talking about-it could send shockwaves through the top of the rankings.
A BYU win could bump them up, drop Texas Tech down, and shuffle Oregon’s potential path.
Then there's the Group of Five picture. On Friday, James Madison and Troy meet in the Sun Belt title game.
Meanwhile, Tulane squares off with North Texas for the American crown. Those outcomes will determine who Oregon gets in that first-round home game.
The Ducks would love a favorable matchup there, but nothing’s guaranteed. The committee has some decisions to make.
Elsewhere, the Big Ten Championship could be a stabilizing force. If Indiana and Ohio State play a tight one, both are likely to stay in the Top 4.
Georgia, currently just outside the top two, could jump to No. 2 with a win over Alabama. But if the Tide-2.5-point underdogs-pull off the upset, they could leap up while Georgia slides.
All of that matters for Oregon because the Ducks don’t necessarily want to move up. Sounds strange, right?
But in this new 12-team playoff format, the top four seeds get a bye-and a long layoff. That’s not ideal for a team that’s finally getting healthy and needs to stay sharp.
Oregon’s sweet spot is exactly where they are: No. 5.
That means a home game against a Group of Five opponent, then a quarterfinal matchup with the No. 4 seed.
That’s the cleanest path to the semifinals. No rust.
No waiting. Just buckle the chinstraps and go.
And for a Ducks roster that’s been slowly getting its stars back-Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart, Gary Bryant Jr.-that’s huge. These guys need game reps, not downtime.
Oregon’s Motor City Magician at quarterback? He’s been electric, but even magic needs a warm-up act.
A home playoff game gives him just that.
So as Championship Week unfolds, Oregon fans should be rooting for chalk. Let the top four stay put.
Let the Ducks host. Let the playoff begin in Eugene.
Because if this team gets rolling, they’re not just a five-seed-they’re a real threat to run the table.