When Oregon runs the ball well, they don’t just win - they dominate. That’s not an opinion, it’s a trend backed by two years of data.
The Ducks are a perfect 25-0 over the last two seasons when they eclipse the 100-yard rushing mark. When they don’t?
They’re 0-2. And those two losses weren’t flukes - they were physical beatdowns at the line of scrimmage, the kind that tell you everything about how Oregon’s offense operates.
Take the October 11 loss to Indiana. The Hoosiers didn’t just slow Oregon down - they shut the door on the run game.
The Ducks managed just 81 yards on 30 carries, a number that takes a nosedive when you factor in six sacks and eight tackles for loss. The offensive line couldn’t hold up, and the offense never found its rhythm in a 30-20 loss.
Go back to last season’s Rose Bowl, and it’s a similar story. Ohio State, led by defensive linemen JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, completely dismantled Oregon’s ground attack.
The Ducks ran the ball 28 times for minus 26 yards. That’s not a typo.
Dillon Gabriel was sacked eight times, and the Buckeyes racked up 13 tackles for loss. It was the only blemish on Oregon’s record that year - and it came when the run game vanished.
The formula is clear: when Oregon can run, they’re nearly unstoppable. In 2025, they topped 176 rushing yards in 10 different games.
That kind of production keeps them ahead of schedule, opens up the playbook, and lets offensive coordinator Will Stein get creative. But when the ground game stalls, everything else does too.
That’s why their upcoming Orange Bowl matchup is so intriguing - and so dangerous.
On January 1, the Ducks will square off against Texas Tech at Hard Rock Stadium, and they’ll be facing the best run defense in the country. The Red Raiders have allowed just 2.3 yards per carry this season.
That’s not just stingy - it’s suffocating. Only three teams all year managed to break the 100-yard mark on the ground against them.
Texas Tech’s defensive front is a nightmare to deal with. Ten different opponents failed to crack 100 rushing yards.
In a 12-1 season, the Red Raiders didn’t just win - they steamrolled teams, with all 12 victories coming by at least three scores. Their defensive line is quick, aggressive, and relentless.
They don’t just plug gaps - they create chaos.
Leading the charge is star edge rusher David Bailey, who’s been a one-man wrecking crew all season. His spin move is pure filth - the kind of move that leaves tackles grasping at air and quarterbacks looking over their shoulder.
It’s no surprise he leads Power Four football in sacks. He’s the kind of player who can wreck a game plan by himself.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning knows what they’re up against. “These guys play a really high level of football, right? And they’ve not just beat opponents, they’ve dominated opponents,” he said.
That dominance starts up front, and if Oregon wants to walk out of Miami with a win, they’ll need to win the battle in the trenches. It’s not just about running the ball - it’s about keeping Texas Tech’s front seven honest. That means mixing up play calls, finding creative ways to get to the edge, and keeping the Red Raiders from pinning their ears back and going after freshman quarterback Dante Moore.
Because if Texas Tech turns this into a one-dimensional game, it could get ugly fast.
The Ducks do have some tools to fight back. Jordon Davison showed flashes against Indiana, rushing for 59 yards on just eight carries.
He was finding success with inside power runs, but Oregon went away from that in the second half. That can’t happen in the Orange Bowl.
If Davison’s finding daylight, you keep feeding him. Especially against a defense that thrives on third-and-long situations.
And then there’s Jacob Rodriguez - the heartbeat of the Red Raiders defense. The former quarterback turned inside linebacker plays with instincts and intensity that jump off the screen.
He’s everywhere. Seven forced fumbles.
Four interceptions. A motor that never quits.
He’s the kind of player who can swing a game with a single play.
So here’s the bottom line: if Oregon can establish the run, they’ve got a real shot. Their offense is built to hum when the ground game is rolling. But if Texas Tech’s front seven takes control early, it could be a long day for the Ducks.
The Orange Bowl isn’t just a showdown between two top teams - it’s a battle in the trenches. And for Oregon, it’s a battle they absolutely have to win.