Oregon’s path back to the College Football Playoff is looking crowded, and not in a good way. The No. 13 Ducks already have one loss on the board, and with eight straight Big Ten games ahead and no bye week, the margin for error is getting razor thin.
That makes every other one-loss contender worth watching, because Oregon isn’t just trying to win out - it’s trying to survive a race packed with teams that can all point to something on their résumé. Some have better wins.
Some have a softer road ahead. Some, like the Ducks, still have heavyweight matchups left that could reshape everything.
Ohio State sits at No. 5 and has the kind of profile the selection committee tends to love. The Buckeyes have Jeremiah Smith giving them a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at receiver, they already own a signature win over Iowa, and their lone defeat came on the final drive against No.
1 Texas. They still have ranked games coming against Indiana and USC, plus the Ducks on Nov.
- If Ohio State handles the rest of its schedule and drops no more than one of those three ranked matchups, it can almost be treated as a postseason lock.
LSU is right there too, and the Tigers’ loss looks good on paper because it came on the road against a top-10 opponent. ESPN’s Paolo Uggetti even called LSU the best one-loss team outside of the Buckeyes and said the Tigers would likely be favored over Oregon on a neutral field.
But there’s a catch: all four of coach Lane Kiffin’s squad have come at home, and LSU’s only top-25 win right now is against Texas A&M, which has since fallen out of the rankings. The Tigers still have No.
17 Mississippi State, No. 6 Alabama, No.
1 Texas and No. 15 Tennessee left, with only the Tennessee game on the road.
Win out and they should be in. Even one loss might be enough, especially if it comes against Alabama or Texas.
Ole Miss has already beaten LSU head-to-head, which gives the Rebels an edge in that race. But the Florida loss, and the fact that it came by more than three touchdowns, is a major blemish.
Ole Miss does have two ranked wins, and that includes an opening victory over then-No. 24 Louisville.
The road ahead is brutal, though, with Texas, Georgia, Missouri and Mississippi State still on the schedule. More than one slip-up probably ends the conversation.
USC is another Big Ten one-loss team in the mix, and Oregon is directly responsible for that blemish. Lincoln Riley’s team has plenty of people around the program uneasy, and the recent performances have even sparked talk about Riley’s job security.
The Trojans still have three ranked games left against No. 5 Ohio State, No.
7 Indiana and No. 21 UCLA.
They also have four road games remaining, including the trip to Indiana and the UCLA game in Los Angeles. USC didn’t exactly inspire confidence on the road against a 1-4 Rutgers team, so there’s not much breathing room left.
Iowa is in the same one-loss bucket and may be more dangerous than people realize. The Hawkeyes’ only defeat is to Ohio State, and unlike Oregon, Ohio State or USC, they appear to be past the hardest part of their schedule.
They have no more games left against teams ranked in the latest AP Poll. Their toughest remaining tests are on the road against Minnesota and Northwestern, a home finale against Nebraska and, if they get there, the Big Ten Championship Game.
In a conference already showing how unpredictable it can be, Iowa is very much alive.
Oregon’s own loss came in a 39-31 defeat at No. 18 Oklahoma State in Week 2, and that result cuts both ways.
It leaves the Ducks with little room to stumble the rest of the way, but it also gives them a chance to argue that an early loss shouldn’t define them. There’s always the possibility that the committee looks more kindly on a Week 2 defeat than a late-season one, especially if Oregon keeps stacking wins.
The Ducks already have one useful head-to-head result in hand after beating USC in Week 4, and a Nov. 7 win over Ohio State would give them another major card to play. The opening loss to Oklahoma State looked worse at the time, especially with the Cowboys coming off a Week 1 loss and only one game under a new head coach.
The close Week 1 win over Boise State didn’t help much either. But both teams are now in the top 25, which gives those early results more weight in hindsight.
There’s also another layer to this race: UCLA, Nebraska and Indiana are still unbeaten, and two of them play each other on Oct. 10, while UCLA visits Oregon. That means the one-loss group could grow even bigger after Week 6. More ranked games will sort things out eventually, but they also mean more opportunities for contenders to knock each other off.
For Oregon, the equation is pretty simple. Win, and the Ducks are in. If they lose again, it likely has to be a close one against a ranked opponent to keep their playoff hopes alive.
In Other News...
Oregons Quarterback Situation Just Got More Complicated At The Worst Time
Dante Moore being ruled out for the upcoming game against UCLA puts Oregon in a tricky spot at exactly the wrong time, but the Ducks at least know they have a ready-made answer behind him. Dylan Raiola is expected to make the start after already stepping in and helping Oregon beat USC, when he threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns and looked comfortable running the offense.
Dan Lanning has made it clear he trusts Raiola to handle the job if Moore cannot go, while also signaling that the Ducks are not going to force the issue with concussion protocol. For Oregon, the bigger concern now is less about one game and more about how long this uncertainty lingers at quarterback as the schedule keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Just Unveiled A New Look Ducks Fans Will Definitely Debate
Week 6 brought the usual flood of college football alternates, throwbacks and one-off concepts, and Oregon once again found itself in the middle of the conversation. The Ducks leaned into their "Origin of Speed" design, part of a slate of notable looks around the sport that also included Floridas 1966 throwback, Notre Dames all-green setup with a special logo, and Utahs icy white helmets.
For Oregon, uniform unveilings have become part of the weekly theater, the kind of detail that fans notice immediately and argue about just as quickly. This one fits the Ducks long-running reputation for trying something new, but it also sits alongside a crowded Week 6 field of sharply different styles, from Western Kentuckys offering to Georgia Tech, Kentucky and FIU, making the debate over Oregons latest look feel very much in line with the programs identity. [Read more 🡒]
Bucky Irving Just Gave Ducks Fans A Reason To Watch Tampa Bay
Bucky Irving gave Oregon fans a little something extra to track Sunday, and it came in a game Tampa Bay needed badly. The Buccaneers went on the road and beat the Cowboys 24-16 in Week 5, with Irving doing the heavy lifting out of the backfield as he piled up a career-high 165 rushing yards and scored twice.
The performance stood out even more because Tampa Bay was again without Baker Mayfield, who missed his second straight game with a dislocated thumb. Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels managed the offense efficiently, completing 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, but Irving was the difference-maker in a win that should have Ducks fans keeping one eye on the NFL box scores. [Read more 🡒]