Week 6 didn’t just shuffle the College Football Playoff picture. For a few teams, it slammed the door.
LSU, Oregon and Florida each took losses that badly undercut whatever momentum they had built, and all three now face a narrow path if they want to keep their Playoff hopes alive. The margin for error is gone. In some cases, it may already be too late.
LSU’s stumble at Kentucky was the kind that changes the shape of a season. The Tigers had already dropped a road game to Ole Miss, and this one made the climb even steeper. ESPN’s FPI now gives LSU just a 16.1% shot at the Playoff, placing it behind Tennessee, Kentucky and Ole Miss, while leaving it basically even with Missouri in the SEC hierarchy.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief. LSU still has Alabama and Texas on the docket, plus a road trip to Tennessee. Even getting to 9-3 now looks like a serious challenge after Lane Kiffin’s team opened 4-2 in his debut season on the Bayou.
Oregon’s situation looks grim in a different way. The Ducks were already carrying the weight of a damaging loss to Oklahoma State, then followed it with another defeat, this time against UCLA.
Because that second loss came in conference play, it hit even harder. ESPN’s FPI has Oregon at 9.8% for the Playoff, and that number puts the Ducks behind not just UCLA, but also Nebraska, Iowa, USC, Northwestern and Wisconsin among the Big Ten’s third-spot contenders.
There’s almost no room left for slipups. Oregon hosts Nebraska this weekend, then gets Northwestern before a trip to Ohio State. The Ducks have been wildly inconsistent, and there’s little reason to think they’re about to suddenly iron everything out.
Florida’s slide has been even more jarring. After losing to Missouri, the Gators followed it with a home loss to South Carolina.
Between those two games, Florida allowed 83 points and 953 yards. Jon Sumrall’s team was probably never all that close to the Playoff picture, even after the Ole Miss win, but a 38-19 loss to South Carolina leaves Florida with only a 2.6% chance to get there, per FPI.
And the schedule only makes things worse. Texas and Georgia are next on the slate, which leaves Florida far more likely to fall to 4-4 than to claw its way back into the race.
The first four games were an overachievement. The next stretch could be a full-on nightmare that drags UF back toward average.
In Other News...
Oregons Bear Alexander Controversy Just Put Dan Lanning Under Pressure
The fallout from Oregons win over UCLA has extended well beyond the scoreboard, with defensive lineman Bear Alexander at the center of the conversation after video showed him punching quarterback Nico Iamaleava while Iamaleava was on the ground. The play came in the middle of a sequence that left UCLA fearing a serious knee injury for its quarterback, and it quickly drew public criticism from Bruins coach Bob Chesney, who called it egregious and regrettable.
Dan Lanning has now been put in the uncomfortable position of defending his player and the programs response, saying Alexander will not be disciplined because he believed the contact was part of an effort to dislodge the ball. Alexander has also expressed remorse and said he never intended to cause harm, but the incident has still become a test of how Oregon handles a moment that has landed far outside the normal bounds of postgame review. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Lanning Just Put Dylan Raiola Back In Nebraskas Spotlight
After Oregons loss to UCLA, Dan Lanning had to turn the conversation from the result itself to the Ducks quarterback situation, and that quickly brought Dylan Raiola back into the spotlight. With Dante Moore dealing with a concussion, Lanning said Raiola will compete with Brock Thomas for the starting job, a development that adds another layer of intrigue to an offense still trying to find its footing.
Lanning also pointed to Raiolas composure after being replaced during the game, a small but meaningful sign in a week when the Ducks were looking for steadiness more than flash. He said the teams body language stayed positive even as the offense struggled, and added that some changes are coming to how Oregon operates without getting into specifics, leaving the bigger picture of the quarterback battle and the adjustments around it very much open. [Read more 🡒]
Dan Lanning Signals Oregon Offensive Changes As Pressure Builds
After Oregons disappointing loss to UCLA, Dan Lanning made clear the Ducks are not standing still on offense. The head coach confirmed that changes are being made to the operation after a season of uneven production, a notable acknowledgment from a program that entered the year expecting much more from that side of the ball.
Lanning stopped short of spelling out what those changes will look like, and he did not say whether the staff itself will be altered. Offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer has taken heat for the inconsistency, but Lanning also pointed back to what Mehringer has done in the past while stressing the need for the group to improve moving forward. [Read more 🡒]