Oregon’s playoff picture is messy, and that’s exactly why Saturday’s 17-14 win over Nebraska mattered even if it didn’t bump the Ducks back into the AP Top 25.
Dan Lanning’s team is still alive in the College Football Playoff race, but it now sits in an awkward spot: Oregon is the only unranked team among six two-loss contenders. The Ducks got 79 points in the latest AP poll, the most of any unranked team outside Oklahoma State, which beat Oregon 39-31 in Week 2.
That leaves Oregon trying to measure its case against five ranked two-loss SEC teams: No. 13 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC), No.
18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC), No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC), No.
20 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 22 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC).
On paper, the Ducks’ schedule strength and résumé keep them in the conversation. In reality, the situation is more complicated than the rankings suggest.
Oregon’s defeats to No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0 Big Ten) and Oklahoma State knocked it out of the poll.
The Massey Ratings, though, tell a more favorable story. They have the Ducks at No. 16 nationally in strength of schedule, and Oregon’s wins include a road victory over then-No.
12 USC plus home wins over Nebraska and No. 21 Boise State (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12).
If Portland State is removed, every opponent Oregon has played this season has received AP Top 25 votes at some point. That doesn’t erase the losses to UCLA and Oklahoma State, but it does show why the Ducks are still hanging around the playoff discussion.
Texas may be the most dangerous team standing in Oregon’s way. The Longhorns own wins over No.
3 Ohio State and No. 11 Tennessee, and Oregon’s own path to building a comparable case runs through Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten).
The Ducks visit the Horseshoe on Nov. 7, and a win there would go a long way toward matching Texas’ profile.
Alabama’s route looks cleaner. The Crimson Tide’s two losses came against Tennessee and No.
5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), and Massey has them at No. 10.
Florida also has a strong argument thanks to wins over Texas and No. 4 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC), but back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC) by a combined 47 points are hard to overlook.
LSU and Missouri sit behind Oregon in the Massey ratings - No. 18 and 23, respectively - even though both are ranked ahead of the Ducks in the AP poll. LSU has losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC), while Missouri has fallen to Ole Miss and Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC).
There’s also a built-in squeeze coming for the SEC crowd. With Alabama and LSU set to meet in Baton Rouge on Nov.
7, Texas and Missouri scheduled to play in Columbia, and Texas then heading to LSU a week later, at least two of these five teams are guaranteed to take a third loss before the year ends. Texas still has Ole Miss left, LSU still has trips to Tennessee and Georgia, and Kentucky remains in Florida’s path.
That leaves Oregon with a simple formula and little margin for error: win.
The second half starts Saturday on the road at Illinois (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten), and every remaining game has the feel of a must-win. The Ducks then get No. 24 Northwestern (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at home before the trip to Ohio State.
After that, the rest of the slate softens some. Michigan (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten), Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) and Washington (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) have combined for a 2-9 conference record.
The SEC may keep creating openings. Oregon has to be the team ready to take them, and justify that preseason No. 2 AP ranking along the way.
In Other News...
Oregons New Five-Star Commit Is Buying Into One Big Defensive Vision
Rashad Streets trip to Autzen Stadium gave Oregons 2027 class another jolt, and it also offered a look at why the five-star edge rusher from Raleigh, North Carolina, feels like such a natural fit for the Ducks. Streets spent time with coaches Dan Lanning and Chris Hampton and came away talking about where he could fit in Oregons defensive scheme, a conversation that matters a lot for a player whose calling card is already his speed and bend off the edge.
The Ducks are viewing him through the same Wide-9 lens that has helped shape the roles of current edge rushers Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti, with the idea being that Streets can grow into a similar kind of presence after adding bulk. For Oregon, that is the appeal of landing a defender with his traits this early in the cycle, because the fit is as important as the ranking and the staff clearly sees a path for him in its front. [Read more 🡒]
Oregons Offense Suddenly Faces A New Evan Stewart Question
Oregons offense is already trying to sort through a lingering injury situation with Evan Stewart, and now it has another layer to manage after his arrest on suspicion of driving under the influence early Sunday morning, according to Springfield police. Coach Dan Lanning addressed the incident Monday and said the program is gathering information while handling the matter internally, leaving the Ducks to balance football preparations with a situation that has quickly become part of the conversation around one of their top playmakers.
Stewart had already been out for Oregons win over Nebraska because of injury, so his status heading forward was uncertain before this off-field issue surfaced. For a Ducks offense that has leaned on depth and adaptability, the question now is not just when Stewart can return to the field, but how the program navigates the next steps while keeping its focus on the stretch ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Is In Position For A Big Hawaiian QB Recruiting Win
A promising early quarterback target from Hawaii has put Oregon squarely in the mix, with 2028 four-star Hunter Fujikawa naming the Ducks among his top six. The Mililani High School standout is already a notable national prospect, ranked No. 17 at quarterback and No. 237 overall in his class by 247Sports, and his list also includes Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford and Ole Miss.
For Oregon, the appeal may go beyond the pitch itself. The Ducks already have a committed future teammate in linebacker Toa Satele, a connection that could help on the recruiting trail as Fujikawa sorts through potential visits and weighs his options. The process is still early, but being in this kind of position with a Hawaii quarterback is exactly the sort of development Oregon wants to keep building on. [Read more 🡒]