Oregon enters the 2026 season with ESPN’s Football Power Index giving the Ducks plenty of respect, slotting them at No. 4 in the country.
Only Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame sit ahead of Oregon in the preseason projection, with Georgia and defending national champion Indiana just behind the Ducks. That ranking reflects what Oregon is bringing back: a big chunk of the offense and defense from a team that reached the College Football Playoff semifinals in 2025.
The FPI also laid out Oregon’s win probability for every game on the regular-season schedule, and the numbers paint a clear picture of where the Ducks are expected to cruise and where the real test sits.
Here’s the full slate, with Oregon’s win probability listed for each matchup:
Boise State Broncos - 94.8%
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 90.8%
Portland State Vikings - 99.0%
USC Trojans - 67.3%
UCLA Bruins - 96.7%
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 92.0%
Illinois Fighting Illini - 85.0%
Northwestern Wildcats - 96.8%
Ohio State Buckeyes - 28.4%
Michigan Wolverines - 83.9%
Michigan State Spartans - 93.1%
Washington Huskies - 89.6%
The Ohio State game jumps off the page immediately. Oregon’s chances there come in below 30%, and that’s before factoring in the challenge of going on the road to The Shoe. ESPN’s model clearly sees that one as the toughest assignment on the schedule, and Ohio State’s talent level is a big reason why.
For Dan Lanning, it’s the one game that naturally invites the underdog angle. Oregon will be expected to show up and compete, but the Buckeyes are the team projected to handle business at home.
The rest of the schedule is where Oregon’s profile really stands out. The Ducks are projected at better than 90% against Oklahoma State, UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan State, which is a strong sign of how much confidence the model has in Oregon against power-conference opponents. USC at 67.3% and Illinois at 85.0% are the other notable spots where the Ducks will need to stay sharp.
Oregon handled that kind of pressure in 2025, losing only to eventual champion Indiana during the regular season. If the Ducks can stay on that track in 2026 - or pull the upset in Columbus - they should be right back in the College Football Playoff with another shot at a title run in January.
In Other News...
Oregon Great DeForest Buckner Just Entered A Concerning New Conversation
ESPNs latest league-wide positional rankings offered a familiar reminder of how much former Oregon Ducks talent still shapes the NFL, with Justin Herbert, Penei Sewell and Christian Gonzalez all landing on the list. For Ducks fans, DeForest Buckner has long been part of that same conversation as one of the programs most reliable pro success stories, a defensive tackle whose resume has usually kept him near the top of the leagues interior line discussion.
This time, though, Buckners name was missing from ESPNs top 10, a notable shift after he was still ranked eighth among defensive tackles in 2025. The omission points to how quickly the discussion can change for a veteran whose recent availability has been limited, and it leaves Oregon followers watching a situation that feels more about health and timing than any real doubt about what Buckner has meant when hes been on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Former Duck Terrance Green Is Suddenly Turning Heads In The SEC
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Now the former Duck is drawing real attention in the SEC, and the early buzz around him has been strong enough to land him on The Athletics preseason second team. With two seasons of eligibility left, Green has a real opportunity to turn a modest Oregon resume into something much bigger in Tuscaloosa, and the next step is whether that promise translates once the games start and the Crimson Tide decide how quickly they want to lean on him. [Read more 🡒]
Oregons Loaded 2027 Class Already Has Early Impact Candidates
Oregons 2027 recruiting haul is already starting to look like more than a future depth chart exercise. The Ducks have 24 commits in the class, and the headliners include five-star wide receivers Dakota Guerrant and Xavier Sabb along with five-star quarterback Will Mencl, a group that gives the staff a rare blend of top-end talent and positional value before any of them have set foot in Eugene.
The intrigue now is how quickly that talent can translate once they arrive. Early projections point to Guerrant, Mencl and Sabb as the kinds of prospects who could force their way onto the field sooner than expected, with Mencls path at quarterback drawing especially close attention as Oregon looks ahead to the next wave of roster turnover. For a program that keeps stacking elite classes, the bigger question is no longer whether the Ducks can sign difference-makers, but how soon they can start using them. [Read more 🡒]