James Madison’s overtime loss at Appalachian State on Thursday night didn’t just end an unbeaten run. It cracked open the whole Group of Six race.
The Dukes’ 34-31 defeat in a Sun Belt showdown left college football with five unbeatens, and none of them now sits in the Group of Six. That shift matters with the CFP selection committee’s first rankings set to arrive Nov. 3, because the automatic berth reserved for the highest-ranked Group of Six team is suddenly a wide-open conversation again - and the idea of two Group of Six teams making the 12-team bracket has taken a hit.
At the same time, the Pac-12’s “flex week” in Week 13 has become a major piece of the playoff puzzle. With an eight-team round-robin giving way to a final weekend of “repeat” matchups that don’t count in the standings or for Pac-12 Championship Game qualification, the league now has a built-in chance to reshape its own playoff case. The setup is meant to let the conference adjust late, identify its best teams and improve its shot at a CFP berth.
Boise State sits in the best position of anyone chasing that opening.
The Broncos are 5-1, ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 and riding a five-game winning streak since their season-opening loss at Oregon. They handled the toughest test since then with a 38-31 win at Fresno State, and they go into Saturday’s game at Washington State as a two-touchdown favorite.
Boise State was the preseason favorite to represent the Group of Six at +750, and it drew two-thirds of the vote from the panel of experts. With a ranking already in place, the Broncos look like the cleanest path to the bid if they keep winning.
They also lead the Group of Six in strength of record at 25th, strength of schedule at 59th and game control at 20th.
New Mexico is the next team in the mix, even if the road is much bumpier.
The Lobos are 5-1 with their only loss coming in a 14-6 defeat at Oklahoma. Their biggest problem is the same one that can sink a Group of Six contender fast: the metrics.
New Mexico has the conference’s highest strength of record at 38th, but its strength of schedule sits at 108th. Saturday’s game against North Dakota State matters because the Lobos need more than a clean record; they need something that looks like a resume.
Jason Eck’s team is trying to keep pace in a race where perception and numbers carry real weight.
Oregon State has also moved into the picture, and the Beavers need the kind of finish that keeps stacking answers.
At 5-2, they’re the CBS Sports Group of Six pick in this week’s CFP projections. Their two losses came against nationally ranked Houston and Texas Tech from the Big 12, which leaves the door open for a strong second half.
If Oregon State runs the table in the Pac-12, reaches 10-2, and wins the league title game, it could put itself in the discussion for the highest-ranked Group of Six spot. Thursday night helped its case, since one of the needed dominos fell with JMU’s loss.
The Beavers were also the last of four Group of Six teams to receive votes in this week’s AP poll, just behind New Mexico and James Madison. They’ll be rooting for North Dakota State to knock off New Mexico this weekend, and they have a major date of their own with Boise State on Nov.
- Oregon State is led by Jesse Legree, who leads the FBS in receiving yards and touchdowns through seven games.
UTSA remains in the hunt as well.
The Roadrunners are 6-1, and their only loss came at Texas. They open this stretch with a visit to Tulane on Saturday, trying to extend a four-game run after Memphis beat ECU in overtime Thursday night.
UTSA and North Texas are the only teams without a loss in conference play through the first three games of the league slate, even though the early preseason assumption was that the Group of Six berth would come down to Boise State or the American champion. UTSA’s biggest remaining game is against North Texas on Nov.
North Texas would have been right in this discussion, too, if not for a damaging loss at Texas State on Sept. 19.
Finally, North Dakota State still has a route, but it’s narrower after the six-point loss at UNLV earlier this month. That defeat hurt the metrics, and the Bison may not get them back in time.
Their road game this weekend could shift things if they win, but for now they’re still on the outside looking in. To stay in the conversation next month, they need to win the Mountain West and hope for chaos at the top of the Pac-12.
In Other News...
Oregons Offense Looks Thin Entering A Crucial Big Ten Test
The Big Tens first availability report for Oregons trip to Illinois did not do the Ducks any favors, with a few key names on both sides popping up before a pivotal conference matchup. For Oregon, the biggest absence is Dante Moore, the starting quarterback who will not be available, and wide receiver Evan Stewart is also out after his recent arrest, leaving the Ducks to sort through a major personnel change at a time when every Big Ten game already carries weight.
Illinois at least appears to be getting closer to full strength at receiver, with Jayshon Platt listed as questionable but reportedly trending toward playing after practicing recently. For Oregon, though, the early injury and availability picture raises an obvious question about how the offense will function without two of its most important pieces in one of the seasons more demanding road tests. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon Needs Answers Fast As Dylan Raiola Faces Early Road Test
Oregons first trip to Champaign in 33 years arrives with more questions than comfort, and the Ducks are bringing a new quarterback situation into a road setting that should tell plenty about where this offense stands. Dylan Raiola is at the center of it for Oregon, while Illinois is turning to Michael Clayton II, leaving both sides to sort through offensive issues at a time when execution is likely to matter more than reputation.
The Ducks have to answer in a hurry on the line of scrimmage, where Oregons protection and Illinois ability to create pressure could end up shaping the game. On the other side, the Ducks will be watching closely to see how their defense handles Clayton II in his first start, because a clean performance there would go a long way toward stabilizing a matchup that already feels like it could hinge on patience and one or two mistakes. [Read more 🡒]
Oregon's Young Receivers Are Suddenly Central To Dylan Raiola's Next Test
With Dante Moore out, Oregons offense has had to lean on a different look at quarterback, with Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas sharing the load and keeping the Ducks moving while the staff manages injuries at both quarterback and receiver. That has pushed true freshmen into bigger roles sooner than expected, and the results have become part of the weekly blueprint rather than a temporary fix.
Jalen Lott and Messiah Hampton have both been asked to handle more, and Raiolas next test now comes with those young targets central to the plan. Dan Lanning has pointed to the way Oregons younger players have answered the call, noting how many snaps this season have gone to players who began their careers in Eugene, which says plenty about how much the Ducks are relying on development as much as depth right now. [Read more 🡒]