Lane Kiffin Heads to LSU: What It Means for Ole Miss and the College Football Playoff Picture
Lane Kiffin is officially out at Ole Miss and in as the new head coach at LSU, a seismic move that shakes up not just the SEC, but the entire College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape. And with the timing of his departure-coming just before the postseason-the ripple effects are already being felt in Oxford and beyond.
Kiffin leaves behind an 11-1 Ole Miss squad that, despite not earning a spot in the SEC Championship Game, has every reason to believe it belongs in the 12-team playoff conversation. But with Kiffin no longer on the sidelines, the CFP committee has a decision to make-and history tells us coaching changes can matter.
What the Committee Considers
Let’s start with the facts: Ole Miss finished its regular season strong, capping off an impressive campaign with a win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. No major injuries.
No late-season collapse. Just a single loss-to Georgia, in Athens-and a résumé that stacks up well against any other at-large contender.
But the College Football Playoff selection committee has made it clear in the past: changes to a team’s structure-whether it's a key player injury or a coaching change-can influence their rankings. The most well-known example? Florida State in 2023.
Back then, the Seminoles were undefeated and had just won the ACC Championship, but losing quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury late in the year turned into a deal-breaker. The committee dropped them to No. 5, keeping them out of the four-team playoff despite a perfect record.
So the question now becomes: Does Lane Kiffin’s departure fall into the same category?
What Makes This Situation Different?
There’s a key distinction here. Unlike Florida State in 2023, Ole Miss hasn’t lost a star player or had to prove itself without one.
The Rebels haven’t played a game without Kiffin yet-and won’t until the postseason. That’s a gray area for the committee.
As Hunter Yurachek, a member of the playoff committee, explained: “It is in the protocol, but I'm not sure we will have a data point to use that as part of the protocol. We would not have seen the team play without the coach.”
That’s a crucial point. The committee has no on-field evidence of how Ole Miss will perform under interim head coach Pete Golding, who was the team’s defensive coordinator under Kiffin. Golding hasn’t been named the permanent head coach, and with no more games before the playoff, the committee is essentially evaluating Ole Miss on the strength of its season under Kiffin.
And that’s a strong case. The Rebels are 11-1, with a top-10 ranking and one of the most balanced teams in the country.
They’re not conference champions, but under the 12-team format, five automatic bids go to conference winners. That leaves seven at-large spots-and Ole Miss is squarely in that mix.
Florida State 2023: A Harsh Precedent
To understand the weight of the Kiffin decision, it helps to revisit what happened with Florida State two years ago.
The Seminoles were 13-0, ACC champions, and had done everything asked of them-except survive a key injury. Jordan Travis went down in mid-November against North Alabama, suffering a fractured and dislocated ankle. Florida State managed to beat Florida and Louisville with backup quarterbacks, but the offense clearly wasn’t the same.
Despite the perfect record, the committee left them out. They were ranked No. 5, and the decision sparked a wave of controversy. The team’s bowl game didn’t help the optics either-many players opted out, and Florida State was blown out 63-3 by Georgia.
The takeaway? The committee values not just what a team has done, but what it can do going forward. And if a team’s trajectory changes-because of an injury or a coaching departure-that can be enough to shift the rankings.
So Where Does Ole Miss Stand?
Here’s the bottom line: Ole Miss has the résumé to be in the playoff. The Kiffin departure complicates things, but it doesn’t necessarily derail them.
The committee doesn’t have a data point to judge this new version of the Rebels. And unlike Florida State, which had to play meaningful games without its star, Ole Miss hasn’t had to prove anything without Kiffin-yet.
Unless the committee decides that the coaching change fundamentally alters the team’s identity, the Rebels should still be in the playoff mix. They’re not a conference champion, but they’ve done enough to be considered one of the top seven teams left after the automatic bids are handed out.
What’s Next?
All eyes now turn to the final CFP rankings. Championship weekend will shake things up, but for Ole Miss, the focus is on whether the committee believes their body of work under Kiffin still holds up-even if he won’t be there for the postseason.
In a 12-team playoff, there’s more room for nuance. And this year, that nuance might make all the difference for a Rebels team that’s done everything right-except keep its head coach.