The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs are headed into their toughest assignment yet, and ESPN’s SP+ thinks they’ll leave Oxford with a win.
Bill Connelly’s Week 10 predictions dropped Monday, and the model has Georgia beating No. 10 Ole Miss 32-23 in Saturday’s top-10 showdown. That’s a notable call in a game with real weight for the SEC and College Football Playoff races, both of which figure to get a major shakeup from what happens this weekend.
Connelly’s SP+ is built to measure team efficiency, explosiveness and overall performance while adjusting for opponent strength. It’s the kind of model that tries to strip away the noise and get to what a team really is, week after week.
For this matchup, it likes the Bulldogs.
That’s a little surprising when you look back at last season, when both meetings between Georgia and Ole Miss were decided by a single possession. Still, SP+ sees this version of Georgia as the stronger side, and it’s pointing to a nine-point road victory.
The full slate of Connelly’s Week 10 picks also included Irish 31, Canes 27; Utah 29, BYU 24; LSU 30, Bama 23; Tenn 32, Kentucky 22; Texas 26, Mizzou 22; Northwestern 24.2, Iowa 23.5; Ohio St 31, Oregon 19 (no QB adj); SC 30, A&M 24; and MACtion 10,000,000, Rest of CFB 0.
Now the prediction is in the books. The real answer comes Saturday night at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, where Georgia and Ole Miss will finally settle it under the lights.
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Ole Miss Georgia Showdown Just Got Bigger For Lane Kiffin
Ole Miss is already staring at a pivotal matchup with Georgia that could shape the SEC title race, and now the weekend has picked up another layer of importance for Lane Kiffins program. Five-star defensive end Asher Ghioto is scheduled to visit Oxford ahead of the game, giving the Rebels a chance to make a strong impression on one of the top-ranked players in Florida while the spotlight is at its brightest.
Ghioto has made it clear that his decision will hinge on more than just a final score. He wants to see how programs respond to wins and losses, which means the atmosphere around this trip could matter as much as the result on the field. For Ole Miss, the timing is ideal: a major SEC stage, a heavily recruited defensive target, and an opportunity to show what the program looks like under pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Faces A Hidden Georgia Edge In Top 10 Showdown
Field position has a way of shaping big SEC games before the first explosive play ever shows up on the stat sheet, and Ole Miss will have to pay close attention to that part of the matchup with Georgia. The Rebels have been starting drives at their own 27.5-yard line on average, while Georgia has been working from the 31.5, a small gap that can quietly add up over the course of a top-10 showdown.
For Ole Miss, that means every extra yard matters in a game where scoring chances may be at a premium and hidden advantages can tilt possession by possession. It will not decide the outcome by itself, but it is the kind of edge that can affect how often each offense gets into comfortable territory and how much pressure the other side feels to answer. [Read more 🡒]
Georgia Faces A Massive Ole Miss Test With Playoff Pressure Rising
With College Football Playoff pressure tightening around both teams, Georgias trip to Ole Miss has the feel of a game that could reshape the late-season conversation in a hurry. The Bulldogs bring one of the nations most balanced profiles into Week 10, with a defense that has been sturdy and an offense that can lean on a strong rushing attack, but this is not the kind of road environment that lets a favorite settle in easily.
Ole Miss has plenty of its own reasons to believe this one can go down to the wire, starting with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and the boost of playing at home. The Rebels will also have to navigate the uncertainty around running back Kewan Lacys injury, which could matter in a game where every possession feels magnified, and the setup points to a tight finish with real playoff consequences hanging over it. [Read more 🡒]