Ole Miss and Texas bring a matchup full of sharp numbers and a few warning lights, with both sides carrying strengths that show up in different parts of the chart.
On the Ole Miss side, the offense still looks like the offense, while the defense has kept climbing after back-to-back showings against Vanderbilt and Missouri. Texas, meanwhile, comes in after ugly offensive outings against Oklahoma and Florida, and there were rumors this week that backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. was getting more first-team snaps in practice, though Steve Sarkisian denied them. Even with that denial, the possibility hangs around: if Arch Manning struggles again and Texas gets desperate, Lacey Jr. could see the field for at least one series.
The numbers in explosiveness point to a classic strength-on-strength feel. Ole Miss ranks 20th in yards per play at 6.4, while Texas’ defense sits second at 4.0.
In points per play, Ole Miss is 10th at 0.543 and Texas is 21st at 0.259 on defense. Texas’ offense has been far less convincing, checking in 91st in yards per play at 5.2 and 45th in points per play at 0.435.
Ole Miss’ defense, meanwhile, ranks 68th in yards per play allowed at 5.4 and 43rd in points per play allowed at 0.333.
Texas’ defensive numbers still look strong, but they come with some context. The Longhorns have faced Texas State, UT San Antonio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, and they’ll also be without edge rusher Colin Simmons on Saturday. That said, the talent level is still high.
When it comes to efficiency, the run game may be the first place Ole Miss can find some room. Texas is strong against the run, but the matchup does not look completely closed off. On the other side, Texas’ offense grades ahead of Missouri’s overall and is notably better at quality runs, though starting running back Hollywood Smothers is likely to miss Saturday’s game.
Third- and fourth-down work could end up mattering just as much. Ole Miss held Missouri to 6 of 19 on those downs, and that happened largely because the Rebels shut down the run early.
According to Game On Paper, 8 of Missouri’s 24 runs went for 0 yards or less, and 14 of 24 went for 2 yards or less. If Ole Miss brings that same run defense to Austin, it changes the math in a big way.
The finishing-drives numbers suggest more of the same. Ole Miss remains first in red zone scoring percentage at 100 percent, while Texas’ defense is 50th at 81.25 percent.
Texas’ offense is 27th at 91.3 percent in the red zone, and Ole Miss’ defense sits 38th at 78.26 percent. Ole Miss’ defensive red zone rise has been helped by a missed 20-ish yard field goal from Missouri and a garbage-time interception inside the 5, two things that are not likely to happen again.
Field position may also tilt slightly toward Ole Miss. Parker Fleming’s numbers have Texas 62nd there and Ole Miss 75th, which could still favor the Rebels if their offense continues doing what it has done all season: score despite less-than-ideal starting spots.
Turnovers are another area where Texas’ defensive profile stands out a little strangely. The Longhorns have strong defensive numbers without forcing many takeaways, and if that trend continues, Texas will take it. Ole Miss, for its part, would do itself a major favor by protecting the ball and not giving an inconsistent Texas offense extra chances.
The bottom line is that Ole Miss can absolutely win this game, but Texas is coming off two embarrassing losses and may treat this as a season-saving night. With three losses, Texas would still have a playoff path, and the sense here is that the Longhorns will get whatever is left of their best shot.
In Other News...
Texas Faces One Brutal Test Protecting Arch Manning Against Ole Miss
Ole Miss has already spent much of this season proving it can handle high-end competition, with Pete Goldings defense navigating four ranked opponents and coming away with three wins. That track record is a big part of why the Rebels are getting attention heading into the matchup with Texas, a program that has slid from No. 1 to No. 19 after back-to-back losses and now has even more pressure on every snap.
The conversation starts up front, where Ole Miss has leaned on a pass rush that can change the tone of a game and force quarterbacks into hurried decisions. Texas will spend plenty of time worrying about that edge pressure and the Rebels disruptive front, while Ole Miss still has its own offensive cleanup work to handle if it wants to make the most of another marquee SEC chance. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Gets One More Jolt Of Hype Before Texas Showdown
The No. 7 Rebels head to Austin for a ranked SEC showdown with No. 19 Texas that already carries real College Football Playoff weight, and the pregame buzz has only grown louder. The Longhorns are dealing with notable absences in Colin Simmons and Hollywood Smothers, while the quarterback situation has also been unsettled enough that backup KJ Lacey Jr. has been getting more first-team reps than usual.
Ole Miss has also picked up a little extra fuel from the national conversation, with several familiar voices weighing in on the matchup. Desmond Howard, Nick Saban, Pat McAfee and Dalton Kincaid have all offered predictions for the game, and most of them landed on the Rebels as the team more likely to leave Austin with a win. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Gets A Chance To Prove A Popular Model Wrong
ESPNs SP+ model is leaning toward Texas in this weekends SEC matchup with Ole Miss, even as the Longhorns arrive on a two-game losing streak and the Rebels carry plenty of momentum of their own. It is the kind of prediction that adds a little extra edge to a game that already has plenty riding on it, especially with both teams trying to shape the bigger picture in conference play.
For Ole Miss, the matchup offers more than a chance to bank another important SEC win. It is also an opportunity to challenge a computer projection that sees Texas as the better bet on paper, and those kinds of games tend to say as much about where a team really stands as they do about the scoreboard. Around the league, SP+ has plenty of other Week 8 calls lined up too, but this one stands out because it pits current form against a model that still favors the Longhorns. [Read more 🡒]