Ole Miss enters Week 9 in a spot it can’t afford to waste. The Rebels are still sitting on quality wins, but losses to Florida and Texas have put real pressure on their College Football Playoff case with No.
3 Georgia still looming in Week 10. Auburn, meanwhile, comes in at 4-3 with one eye-catching win on its résumé after knocking off Georgia, even if last week’s 21-point loss to LSU knocked the Tigers back down a notch.
The biggest wrinkle in this matchup is the absence of Kewan Lacy. Ole Miss will be without its star running back because of a shoulder injury, and that matters in a game where the Rebels are still laying nearly two touchdowns at home. The question now is whether Trinidad Chambliss can keep Ole Miss steady enough to cover and keep the playoff path alive.
Chambliss took a hit in the Heisman race after the loss to Texas, where he threw three interceptions. He had been as high as +650 earlier in the season and got back to +650 entering Week 8 after the Florida loss pushed him down, but he’s now all the way back to +3000. Even with the rough outing, his numbers remain strong: 63.7 percent completions, 1,926 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and six rushing scores.
He’ll be tested by an Auburn defense that has been solid enough to make life uncomfortable. The Tigers are 85th nationally in success rate on defense, but they also check in 41st in adjusted EPA/Play and 60th in EPA/Pass. That gives Auburn enough structure to at least make this one messy, especially without Lacy forcing Ole Miss to lean on its ground game.
Ole Miss has been efficient on offense all season, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA/Play and inside the top 30 in success rate. But the defense has been more vulnerable, especially against the run, where the Rebels sit 97th in EPA/Rush. That weakness was part of what hurt them in the Florida loss, and it’s the kind of area Auburn can try to attack.
The Tigers have their own path to staying in the game: the run. Auburn is 36th in EPA/Rush and 57th in run play success rate, so there’s at least a reasonable case for them to keep things competitive by leaning on the ground attack.
And while Auburn’s overall record is only 4-3, it has shown it can hang around in SEC play. The Tigers’ losses in conference have come by five points against Florida and by 10 against Tennessee.
Still, Ole Miss has already handled LSU and Missouri, and the Rebels also beat LSU earlier this season - a result that gives this matchup a little more shape after Auburn’s loss to the same team. I don’t see Auburn pulling the upset on the road, but the number feels a bit steep with Lacy sidelined.
The Rebels should win, but Auburn has enough on both lines of the game to make this one closer than the spread suggests.
In Other News...
Ole Miss Just Won A Huge In-State Recruiting Battle
Ole Miss landed a major in-state recruiting win when Mitchell Turner, one of Mississippis top prospects and a four-star defensive lineman, announced he is officially committed to the Rebels and has closed his recruitment. Turner had drawn plenty of interest and kept looking at his options, including a visit to Alabama, but he ultimately settled back on the program closest to home, giving Ole Miss a significant addition on the defensive front.
For a Rebels staff trying to keep elite local talent from drifting elsewhere, this kind of commitment carries extra weight. Turners standing as a nationally ranked prospect only raises the stakes, and his upcoming appearance in the 2026 Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Game will give everyone another look at what Ole Miss is adding as it continues to build around the states best players. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Could Get A Timely Boost Up Front Vs Auburn
Ole Miss got through the Texas game without a sack allowed, but the offensive line still had to work around a key absence at right tackle. Terez Davis left that game with an injury and was held out as a precaution, a development that mattered even in a performance where the pass protection held up and the running game was not as sharp.
Pete Golding said Davis is expected back for the Auburn matchup, which would be a welcome bit of stability up front for a line trying to keep building on its pass-protection success. His return would also give the Rebels another piece to lean on as they look to find more balance on offense and avoid making that side of the ball do extra work. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Just Landed In A Postseason Picture Fans Will Debate
With the postseason picture still taking shape, ESPNs latest bowl projections have started to map out where the SECs top teams could land if the season ended right now. Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach updated their matchups across the conference, and the list includes the familiar heavyweights along with the rest of the leagues crowded middle, all of it tied to current rankings and how teams have performed to this point.
For Ole Miss fans, the interest is less about the certainty of any one destination and more about the range of possibilities still in play. Projections this early are always fluid, especially with so many SEC teams still sorting themselves out, but they do offer a useful snapshot of how the Rebels fit into a postseason race that could keep shifting right up to the end of the regular season. [Read more 🡒]