Week 1 is here, and with it comes the kind of early-season chaos that makes college football impossible to resist. This is the time when the market still has to sort out coaching changes, roster turnover and whatever we learned - or didn’t learn - in Week 0. With that in mind, here are five moneyline underdogs that can win outright this weekend.
Louisville is the first swing. Ole Miss got through a big test last year, when Pete Golding guided the Rebels to a pair of College Football Playoff wins and a trip to the semifinals.
But opening a full season is a different animal. Louisville looks like a live dog in this spot, especially with Jeff Brohm in charge.
Since taking over in 2023, Brohm’s Cardinals are 4-3 straight up as underdogs. Before that, from 2017-22 at Purdue, his teams went 15-20 in those spots, a 43% win rate that easily outpaced the FBS average of 26% over that stretch.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has a lot to replace: most of its offensive staff, nearly all of its top wide receivers and multiple offensive linemen. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are back, but there’s enough turnover here to make the Rebels vulnerable.
Pick: Louisville to win (29% chance on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +245
San Jose State is another underdog worth a look. The Spartans showed some real fight in the second half against USC’s backups and third-stringers in Week 0, and that was enough to make them attractive on the road here.
Luke Weaver was the difference-maker, throwing for 234 yards and two touchdowns on 32 attempts while also adding 42 rushing yards and another score. Eastern Michigan also opened with a win, beating newly-promoted Sacramento State, but the context matters.
The Eagles got that victory against what might be one of the worst Group-of-6 teams in the country, and their EPA-per-play landed in the 31st percentile, per Game on Paper.
Florida State is a tougher sell emotionally, but the pick is still the Noles. They’re 3.5-point home underdogs against an SMU team that has dominated the ACC since joining the league.
The reaction to Florida State’s Week 0 win over New Mexico State felt overblown. The Seminoles controlled that game throughout and posted major advantages in success rate and EPA.
They also likely kept the playbook pretty simple with SMU waiting in Week 1. On the other side, SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings dealt with a finger injury in August and missed most of fall camp, though he’s expected to be ready for Monday night.
Cal over UCLA is another upset candidate, and this one starts with quarterback play. UCLA has drawn plenty of offseason buzz with former James Madison coach Bob Chesney now in Westwood, and Nico Iamaleava is back.
Still, this is a roster in transition after the Bruins brought in more than 60 new players, including a large group from JMU. Cal, though, has what looks like the best quarterback in the game, and maybe in the entire ACC.
Add in new head coach Tosh Lupoi, who is known as an excellent recruiter and talent evaluator, and the Golden Bears have enough to win this one outright.
Boston College rounds out the list, and this pick says as much about Cincinnati as it does about the Eagles. Bill O’Brien is still trying to get things moving in Chestnut Hill, even if Boston College hasn’t generated much offseason noise.
The bigger concern is Cincinnati’s new quarterback, JC French. He takes over for Brendan Sorsby after a turnover-heavy stretch at Georgia Southern, where he threw 20 interceptions over the last two seasons and had 33 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
That profile suggests a real drop-off from Sorsby, who was one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in 2025.
In Other News...
Chambliss Sends Ole Miss Fans A Message Before Louisville Test
With Louisville on deck, Trinidad Chambliss spent his pregame media time doing what coaches and quarterbacks prefer this time of year: keeping the focus on football. The Ole Miss quarterback praised Louisvilles defense, calling attention to a physical, well-coached group that figures to make Saturday night a useful early test. He also touched on the leadership role he has taken on and the progress he believes he made during fall camp, which has helped shape the tone around this matchup.
Chambliss also pushed back against the noise that can build around preseason narratives, including the social media chatter tied to LSUs roster situation. For Ole Miss, the bigger picture is simple enough: a September 6 meeting with Louisville at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC, with a chance to see how the Rebels handle an opponent that should demand sharper execution from the start. [Read more 🡒]
Former Ole Miss Players Are At Center Of A Fight LSU Didn't Want
The SECs latest legal fight has landed squarely in Baton Rouge, with LSU and coach Lane Kiffin named in a federal lawsuit over the eligibility of former professional players DaeQuan Wright and Zxavian Harris. Both players previously signed NFL contracts and are now trying to return to college football, which has put them at the center of a conference policy that bars member schools from adding athletes who already crossed into the pro ranks.
For Ole Miss fans, the wrinkle is familiar because Wright and Harris once wore Rebel colors before their paths took them into the professional game. Now the SEC is moving to enforce its rule in court, and a judge is expected to weigh a temporary restraining order that would determine whether LSU can use the players while the case plays out. It is an awkward, high-stakes dispute the conference clearly did not want, and one that could shape how quickly this kind of eligibility battle gets settled in the future. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss Is Building Something Bigger Than Football
Trinidad Chambliss rise at Ole Miss has started to spill beyond the field and into a different kind of impact. The Rebels quarterback has entered an NIL partnership with the Mama Justice law firm, and the centerpiece is a scholarship effort tied to his name that is aimed at students across the region, not just the Oxford spotlight.
The Macon a Difference Scholarship will total $225,000 over five years and will award three $15,000 scholarships each year beginning in spring 2027. Applications open Oct. 1, with eligibility extending to students attending SEC universities in Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, as well as recent high school graduates, giving Chambliss a platform that reaches well beyond game day. [Read more 🡒]