If you want to find a real dark horse in the Power 4 race, you have to look past the obvious names and into the teams that can actually turn a good roster into a conference-title run. That’s the exercise here, and it starts with a team that gets a shot at proving itself right away.
Louisville is the ACC pick, and Week 1 will tell the story fast. The Cardinals open with Ole Miss in Nashville, a game that carries plenty of weight because the Rebels bring back star QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy after Pete Golding guided them to 2 Playoff wins last year before a loss to Miami.
If Louisville wins that one, the path starts to open. Jeff Brohm’s team gets SMU in Week 3 and avoids both Miami and Clemson, which gives the Cardinals a schedule that looks workable if transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz and the rebuilt offense come together quickly.
In the Big 12, Arizona is the long shot. Texas Tech sits as the clear favorite and BYU is right behind, but there’s a reason to keep an eye on Noah Fifita.
He’s the kind of quarterback who can tilt a game, and the Wildcats have two of his top receivers back along with important defensive pieces, including second-leading tackler Taye Brown. The problem is the road map is brutal: Arizona has to travel to Lubbock and Provo and also host Utah and TCU.
That’s a nasty lineup, and it helps explain why Kalshi gives the Wildcats just a 2% chance to win the Big 12.
Michigan is the Big Ten team that fits this mold. Beating out Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon won’t be easy, but Kyle Whittingham was described as the best possible hire Michigan could make after major offseason drama.
The next step is simple to say and harder to do: Bryce Underwood has to make a real leap in his second year as the starter, especially against better opponents. He does have help, with leading receiver Andrew Marsh and leading rusher Jordan Marshall both back, and the defense should be strong enough to carry its share if the quarterback play improves.
The schedule leaves little margin for error, though, with Oregon on the road in Week 11 and Ohio State in The Game in Week 13. Before that, Michigan gets Oklahoma, Penn State and Indiana in Ann Arbor.
Oklahoma is the SEC’s dark-horse swing. Brent Venables has another defense that looks ready to hit hard, even after losing R Mason Thomas, Robert Spears-Jennings and others.
The Sooners still bring back their top 2 tacklers in Kip Lewis and Owen Heinecke, star DL David Stone and a secondary featuring Courtland Guillory, Eli Bowen and Peyton Bowen. That group could be one of the two best defenses in the SEC.
On offense, everything circles back to John Mateer. He flashed big-time ability early last season before a hand injury changed things, and if he gets back to that early-2025 level, Oklahoma has enough around him to move the ball.
The line should be better, and the receiver group is deep with Isaiah Sategna III, Trell Harris and Texas transfer Parker Livingstone. The schedule is rough - Michigan, Georgia, Texas in Dallas, plus Ole Miss and Texas A&M at home - but a couple of early upsets could make the Atlanta path look a lot clearer.
Kalshi puts Oklahoma at 8% to win the SEC title.
In Other News...
Lane Kiffin Faces A New Ole Miss Debate Over Trinidad Chambliss
Trinidad Chambliss went from injury replacement to the face of Ole Miss football in 2025, taking over after Austin Simmons went down and helping push the Rebels to a program-record 13 wins while coming close to reaching the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. His rise has only sharpened the conversation around what it all means for Lane Kiffins reputation, especially after one SEC coach suggested Chamblisss breakout had more to do with the quarterback himself than with the head coach drawing the plays.
Chambliss is back for a final season after winning a court battle to return, and hell do so under Pete Golding as Ole Miss opens 2026 against Louisville with expectations that will be hard to miss. The quarterback is already being talked about as a Heisman Trophy contender, which only adds another layer to the debate in Oxford: whether Kiffins offense helped create the moment, or whether Chambliss was the kind of player who could have turned heads anywhere. [Read more 🡒]
Pete Golding Sees An Early Sign Ole Miss Defense Is Advancing Fast
Pete Golding did not need much time to see why Ole Miss walked into fall camp feeling ahead of schedule on defense. The Rebels carried over continuity from spring and summer workouts, and the return of key pieces like Edwin Joseph and Jordan Renaud gave the staff a familiar base to build on. Golding also pointed to the offseason development structure and the way new offensive coordinator John David Baker helped make the transition smoother, with players already showing a stronger grasp of the playbook than a typical camp opener might suggest.
For a defense trying to take a step forward, that kind of early comfort matters because the real test comes when the tempo rises and mistakes stop being theoretical. Golding believes the groups versatility should help it handle adversity, but fall camp is where that confidence gets stress-tested against pressure, alignment checks and the kind of mental load that can expose whether a unit is truly ahead of the curve. [Read more 🡒]
John David Baker Faces Ole Miss Offense Debate Fans Cant Ignore
Ole Miss comes into the season with real offensive standards attached to it after last years group finished third in the SEC in points per game and led the league in passing and total yards. John David Baker now inherits that machine as offensive coordinator, and the job is less about starting from scratch than finding a way to keep the production humming while fitting the attack more cleanly with what the defense needs behind it.
The balancing act is what makes Bakers first turn so interesting. Ole Miss also went into the portal to deepen the receiving room, bringing in Syracuse wideouts Darrell Gill Jr. and Johntay Cook, which gives the offense more options if the staff wants to keep its pace high. The open question is whether Baker leans into the same aggressive approach that made the Rebels so hard to handle or dials it back enough to help the rest of the team breathe a little easier. [Read more 🡒]