Ole Miss took a brutal hit last Saturday night, and the damage showed up immediately in the AP Poll. After Georgia’s 42-7 blowout win, the Rebels slid from No. 12 to No. 19, a drop that reflected just how much that loss undercut both their SEC and playoff position.
The bigger issue for Ole Miss is the timing. Georgia handed the Rebels their third conference loss of the season, leaving them sixth in the SEC standings and turning their path to the SEC championship game into a long shot.
They were sitting at No. 10 in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings, but Tuesday night’s update at 8 p.m. CT will give a clearer picture of how the committee views them now.
My prediction is that Ole Miss lands at No. 18 in the new CFP rankings, one spot ahead of where the AP placed them.
That would line up with the AP’s view of the Rebels as the second-highest-ranked three-loss team, behind only Oregon, which sits one spot ahead of Ole Miss at No. 18 in the AP Poll. I think the committee follows that same logic and slots Ole Miss just behind Oregon, but ahead of other three-loss teams such as South Carolina, Ohio State and LSU.
There are a couple of rankings that could shake that up. Boise State is the biggest one. The AP has the Broncos at No. 17, ahead of Ole Miss and the rest of the three-loss group, but they were all the way down at No. 25 in last week’s CFP rankings.
Arizona is another variable. The AP has the Wildcats at No. 22, behind Ole Miss and the other three-loss teams, but the committee had Arizona ahead of Oregon at No. 22 in last week’s CFP poll. At the same time, Arizona was ranked behind three-loss South Carolina in the AP Poll.
Still, with Oregon’s win over Ohio State, I expect the Ducks to move up past Arizona and South Carolina. I also expect the committee to line up with the AP and place Oregon ahead of Ole Miss.
If that happens, the order should look like this: Oregon at No. 17, Ole Miss at No.
18, South Carolina at No. 19, with Arizona and Boise State right behind. No. 18 wouldn’t end Ole Miss’ playoff chances, but it would leave the Rebels with a steep climb to get into the 12-team field.
We’ll find out Tuesday night when the CFP rankings are revealed.
In Other News...
Ole Miss Fans Just Saw Pete Goldings Biggest Problem Again
The Georgia game offered another harsh reminder of why Ole Miss has spent so much of this season trying to patch up its defense on the fly. In a 42-7 loss, the Rebels gave up 481 total yards and were especially vulnerable on the ground, where Georgia piled up 295 rushing yards and controlled the game from start to finish.
Pete Goldings unit has been fighting this issue all season, and the numbers only sharpen the concern. Ole Miss is now allowing 165.1 rushing yards per game after this matchup, a troubling trend for a defense that has struggled to hold up against physical run games and has not found a consistent answer yet. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Just Got A Brutal Reality Check After Georgia Loss
Cole Cubelics weekly SEC breakdown offered a blunt reminder of where Ole Miss stands after the loss to Georgia, with the Rebels landing among the weekends most closely watched teams in a slate that also featured Alabamas road win at LSU, Texas handling Missouri and Tennessee rolling past Kentucky. His analysis dug into the details of how those games were decided, from offensive execution to defensive adjustments, and Ole Miss was part of the conversation for all the wrong reasons.
For a Rebels team trying to measure itself against the leagues elite, the Georgia game became more than just another setback. Cubelics observations pointed to the kind of control the Bulldogs were able to exert on both sides of the ball, and that leaves Ole Miss with a clear standard to chase as the season moves on. The bigger question now is how the Rebels respond when the margin for error shrinks and the competition keeps getting tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Ole Miss Playoff Hopes Now Hinge On One Uncomfortable Debate
Ole Miss still has enough on the rsum to make people look twice, especially with wins over LSU and Missouri, but the margin for error has all but vanished after a pair of damaging losses. The latest setback against Georgia only sharpened the conversation around where the Rebels really stand, because the committee is no longer looking at signature wins alone. It is also looking hard at the ugly parts, and those have become impossible to ignore.
The schedule does offer a chance to steady things, with Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State still ahead. But for the Rebels, the bigger issue is no longer simply winning out, it is whether the playoff conversation can survive the kind of debate that comes with multiple poor losses on the ledger. At this point, Ole Miss can keep playing its way forward, but it cannot fully control how the rest of the field and the committee choose to weigh what has already happened. [Read more 🡒]