College Football Playoff: Betting Markets Cool on First Round, But Fireworks Could Still Come
As the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff enters its first full season, the betting action isn’t exactly off to a roaring start - at least not across the board. With the exception of Friday night’s marquee Alabama-Oklahoma clash, sportsbooks are seeing a slower-than-expected start to wagering, and the reason isn’t all that complicated: two Group of Five teams are crashing the party, and oddsmakers don’t see them hanging around long.
Heavy Favorites, Light Action
No. 11 Tulane and No.
12 James Madison have earned their way into the field, but they’re walking into some steep uphill climbs. Sixth-seeded Ole Miss is currently a 17.5-point favorite over Tulane at BetMGM, while No.
5 Oregon is laying 20.5 points against James Madison. That kind of disparity has made these matchups less appealing for casual bettors, who tend to gravitate toward tighter lines and more unpredictable outcomes.
“It’s not as hyped up and exciting as it has been in years prior,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “But I’m sure when we get to the next round, it will be exciting and we’ll garner a lot of handle there.”
Translation: the real fireworks might be coming on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, when the quarterfinals are set to deliver some heavyweight showdowns. But for now, the early round feels like a warm-up act - one that could end with a couple of lopsided box scores.
Alabama-Oklahoma: A Toss-Up With History
If there’s one game that’s got the betting world buzzing this weekend, it’s the 8-vs-9 matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma - two bluebloods with something to prove. The line has seesawed throughout the week, with Oklahoma sitting as a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
This is the third meeting between these teams in just over a year, and Oklahoma has taken the first two. They’ll also have home-field advantage this time around, adding another wrinkle to what’s shaping up to be a razor-close contest.
Still, both offenses come in with serious question marks. Alabama’s ground game has sputtered against top-tier opponents - highlighted by a brutal minus-3 rushing yards in the SEC title game loss to Georgia. Meanwhile, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer hasn’t looked quite right since returning from injury, struggling to find rhythm and consistency.
“The rematch thing kind of makes you like Alabama a little bit here,” said Bruce Marshall, a handicapper with CBS SportsLine. “But I don’t know that they look like a threat to go any deeper than this round.
They might get by this one, but they’re going to have to play a lot better than they have in the last month - certainly a lot better than they did against Georgia. That effort didn’t make any sense.”
Ohio State Still the Team to Beat
Despite dropping the Big Ten title game to Indiana and surrendering the top seed in the process, No. 2 Ohio State remains the betting favorite to win it all.
BetMGM has the Buckeyes at +225 to take home the national championship, just ahead of Indiana at +275. Georgia, the third seed, is next in line at +500.
It’s not hard to see why bettors are backing the Buckeyes. This team has a track record of bouncing back after tough losses - just last season, they followed a head-scratching defeat to Michigan with a dominant postseason run that ended in a national title, winning every game by double digits.
“Ohio State is the No. 1 most-bet team by a wide margin, but their price has been so short all year,” said BetMGM’s Seamus Magee. “My prediction is Ohio State over Indiana. You saw it last year - Ohio State loses to Michigan, they lose to Indiana this year, but you see what this team is capable of come playoff time.”
Life After Kiffin: What’s Next for Ole Miss?
One of the biggest wild cards in this playoff isn’t a player - it’s a coach. Lane Kiffin, who guided Ole Miss to the No. 6 seed, is out after accepting the LSU job. He had hoped to stick around for the playoff run, but the Rebels decided to move on without him.
That decision leaves a lot of uncertainty around a team that was seen as a potential dark horse. Ole Miss is sitting at 25-1 odds to win the title, behind eight other programs. And while they’re expected to handle Tulane in the opening round, what happens after that is anyone’s guess.
Kiffin’s departure could have a real impact on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who made noticeable strides under his former coach’s guidance.
“Kiffin was so involved in the mechanics of that and the play calling, (his absence) might actually hurt Ole Miss a bit,” Marshall said. “It could work both ways. They could really galvanize and circle the wagons around (defensive coordinator-turned-interim coach) Pete Golding, but I think the specifics without Kiffin the play caller could hurt Chambliss a little bit.”
Bye Week Blues? Not So Fast
Last season, all four teams that earned a first-round bye ended up losing in the quarterfinals - a stat that’s raised some eyebrows about whether the extra rest might actually be a disadvantage. After all, three weeks without game action is a long time in football, and rust can be real.
But not everyone’s buying that narrative.
“That’s referring to a one-year trend,” Feazel said. “We’re talking about (only) four games where that happened last year. … I think it still is an advantage to get a bye, especially just the time to prepare depending on the coach.”
He’s got a point. One year doesn’t make a pattern, and the value of rest and preparation - particularly for programs with elite coaching staffs - can’t be overstated.
Looking Ahead
While the opening round might lack the sizzle of past years, the structure of the expanded playoff means the real drama is just around the corner. The heavyweights are lurking, the lines will tighten, and the stakes will only get higher.
For now, it’s about taking care of business - and for some teams, proving they belong. Whether it’s a Group of Five underdog trying to shock the world or a blueblood looking to recapture its swagger, the path to the title is wide open.