As we head into the final weekend before bowl season, the College Football Playoff committee is set to unveil its penultimate rankings on Tuesday night - and this one matters. A lot. With most teams having wrapped up their regular seasons, this is the clearest picture yet of how the committee views the playoff contenders heading into Championship Saturday.
There’s no shortage of drama. Coaching changes, rivalry upsets, and potential chaos in the ACC have all thrown a wrench into what was already a tightly packed playoff race. Here’s what to keep an eye on when the rankings drop - four key questions that could shape the entire postseason landscape.
1. What does Lane Kiffin’s exit mean for Ole Miss?
The coaching carousel is spinning, and Lane Kiffin is already off it - landing in Baton Rouge and leaving Ole Miss behind just days before the rankings drop. That’s a seismic shift, not just for the Rebels, but for the playoff picture.
Before Kiffin’s departure, Ole Miss looked like a lock to stay put - or even move up - around the No. 7 spot, especially after Texas A&M’s stumble. But now?
The committee has to weigh more than just wins and losses. Kiffin didn’t leave alone; a significant portion of his offensive staff is headed with him.
That raises a real question: how much does the committee factor in coaching instability when evaluating a team’s strength heading into the postseason?
It’s rare for a top-10 team to lose its head coach and key coordinators this late in the year, and the committee has to decide whether Ole Miss is still the same threat without the brain trust that got them here. If they drop, it won’t be because of what happened on the field - it’ll be about who’s no longer on the sideline.
2. Can James Madison crack the Top 25 and spark ACC chaos?
If you’re rooting for absolute mayhem on Championship Saturday, James Madison and Duke are your best friends.
Here’s the scenario: if JMU sneaks into the Top 25 in Tuesday night’s rankings, it sends a clear message that the committee sees them as stronger than 7-5 Duke. That’s significant, because if JMU wins its conference title and Duke pulls off an upset in the ACC Championship, JMU could be positioned as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions - a key requirement for a potential New Year’s Six berth or even deeper postseason implications.
It’s a long shot, but the path is there. For that path to even exist, though, JMU needs to see its name in that Top 25 tonight. If they do, buckle up - chaos is officially on the table.
3. Who’s safe with a loss this weekend?
Every year, the committee’s second-to-last rankings give us a clue about which teams have a cushion heading into their conference title games - and which ones are walking a tightrope.
This year, all eyes are on Alabama. The Crimson Tide are currently in the playoff field, but their margin for error might be razor-thin. A loss in the SEC Championship could open the door for teams like BYU, Miami, or Utah to slide in, especially if they win their own title games convincingly.
The committee’s Tuesday rankings will show just how much leeway Alabama really has. Are they viewed as dominant enough to survive a close loss?
Or are they hanging on by resume alone? Either way, we’ll know soon - and so will the teams lurking just outside the top four, ready to pounce.
4. How far does Texas climb after its statement win?
Texas delivered the biggest jolt of rivalry weekend, handing Texas A&M its first loss of the season. That kind of win doesn’t just boost confidence - it boosts rankings.
The Longhorns entered last week sitting at No. 16, but with that upset in their back pocket, they could be poised to make a serious jump. And while a three-loss team making the playoff is still highly unlikely, Texas has built a résumé that at least keeps them in the conversation - especially if chaos unfolds elsewhere.
The committee’s view of Texas tonight will tell us a lot. If they make a significant leap, it means the door isn’t closed - not completely.
They’ll still need help, but they’ve done their part. Now it’s up to the playoff dominoes to fall just right.
Final Thoughts
Tuesday night’s rankings aren’t just about seeding - they’re about setting the stage. They’ll tell us how much the committee values coaching stability, how much chaos is possible in the ACC, which teams have a margin for error, and who might be lurking in the shadows with a shot to crash the party.
It’s not just a list. It’s the roadmap to Championship Saturday - and beyond.