Texas Tech entered the 2026 season with Big 12 title expectations hanging over it, but Week 11 has turned into a must-hold spot in the standings. The Red Raiders are suddenly fighting just to stay in the conference championship picture, with five other 4-2 teams sitting one game behind them. That makes this weekend’s trip to face Oklahoma State a dangerous one.
The Cowboys have built one of the strongest offenses in college football and have put together an impressive run this season. The big question is whether that firepower can push them past Texas Tech.
Drew Mestemaker is a major reason Oklahoma State is still very much in the Big 12 mix. He enters Week 11 fifth in the Heisman Trophy odds at +1500, and the numbers back up the buzz.
He has completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,962 yards, 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has also added 177 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.
The best betting angle here looks like the total. Rather than backing either side, the pick is the OVER, with the expectation that Saturday turns into a shootout even with the number sitting in the 70s.
That call lines up with how both offenses have performed in 2026. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State rank 37th and 12th in EPA per pass, and both defenses have shown vulnerabilities through the air. The Red Raiders and Cowboys sit 109th and 67th in opponent EPA per pass, which sets the stage for plenty of production from both quarterbacks.
This one has all the ingredients for a big scoring game. The play is the OVER.
In Other News...
Oklahoma State Has Real Reason To Watch Eric Morris And Texas Tech
Texas Techs coaching situation has become part of the background noise around Oklahoma State, especially with Eric Morris now in Stillwater and his name already surfacing in other conversations. Morris, a former Red Raiders player, has tried to keep the focus on his own program, saying he is committed to Oklahoma State even as outside interest follows a coach with his profile.
The Texas Tech side of the equation matters because Joey McGuire has built real momentum in Lubbock, including guiding the Red Raiders to their first College Football Playoff appearance last season. With Texas Tech leadership publicly backing McGuire and signaling stability, Oklahoma State has a reason to keep an eye on how that situation develops, even if Morris keeps insisting his attention is elsewhere. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Could Be Running Out Of Proven QB Options
The quarterback market is tightening fast across college football, and Oklahoma State has to be watching the ripple effects closely. Mississippi States Kamario Taylor is reportedly finalizing a new deal to stay with the Bulldogs, a move that would put him in position to become the highest-paid quarterback in the sport and only adds to the sense that proven options are disappearing early.
For programs trying to navigate the portal, the timing matters. The pool of available passers is shrinking as more quarterbacks choose to stay put, and the demand for anyone with real starting experience remains high. For the Cowboys, that kind of squeeze only raises the stakes around every decision at the position, especially with the market moving quickly and the best names getting locked in before other schools can make a push. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma State Has A Real Chance To Wreck Texas Techs Playoff Push
Texas Tech comes into Saturday night in a spot it has spent most of the season chasing, sitting at 8-1 and just outside the College Football Playoff picture. But the Red Raiders are walking into a dangerous matchup at Oklahoma State, where ESPN analyst Greg McElroy pointed to the Cowboys offensive upside as the kind of thing that can make life uncomfortable for a team trying to protect a postseason push.
A big part of that threat starts with quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who has been piling up big passing days and giving Oklahoma State a real chance to stress a Texas Tech defense that has not always looked steady. With kickoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, this has the feel of a game where the Cowboys can do more than just play spoiler, and Texas Tech will have to prove its playoff case on the road against a team that can score in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]