The first batch of bowl projections says a lot about where Oklahoma State stands right now: not quite a sure thing, but still very much in the mix.
The Cowboys haven’t played in a bowl game since the 2023 season, and since that trip they’ve managed only four wins. New head coach Eric Morris is trying to reset that trajectory, but the target is clear - six wins, and a postseason berth. That’s the bar, and while there’s plenty of optimism around the program, optimism doesn’t count until the games start.
Three college football analysts recently put out their early bowl predictions, and Oklahoma State’s name showed up in different places depending on who you asked. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura left the Cowboys out entirely. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and On3’s Brett McMurphy were more bullish, slotting OSU into the mix for the Texas Bowl and the Liberty Bowl, respectively.
That matters because of how the Big 12’s bowl pecking order works. The conference champion goes to the College Football Playoff, and any at-large Big 12 team would also land in the 12-team field.
After that, the order begins with the Alamo Bowl and then moves through the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Cactus Bowl and Independence Bowl. The rest of the bowl-eligible teams get sorted into other games.
Schlabach’s projection essentially puts Oklahoma State as the fourth Big 12 team chosen, assuming the league sends one team to the CFP. McMurphy has the Cowboys as the fifth team selected.
Record matters, but it’s not the only thing. Bowl selection can tilt toward geography, fan travel and how attractive a fan base looks to the bowl itself.
The Alamo Bowl, for example, can choose the best available team by record, or it can go another direction if it thinks a different school will bring more people. Kansas State is one example of that kind of consideration.
The recent Texas Bowl and Liberty Bowl matchups show how that can play out. Last season, Houston and LSU played in the Texas Bowl.
Houston entered at 9-3 and was 6-3 in Big 12 play, tied for fourth in the league. The Liberty Bowl featured Cincinnati and Navy; Cincinnati came in at 7-5 and 5-4 in Big 12 play, tied for seventh.
In both cases, geography likely helped shape the matchup.
That’s why the projections for Oklahoma State are encouraging even without a unanimous forecast. Schlabach’s pick points to a team that could finish 6-3 in league play and hang around the edge of the Big 12 title chase. McMurphy’s projection suggests a 5-4 conference record, which would still be enough to get the Cowboys into a bowl game.
Bonagura may come around as the season unfolds. For now, though, the broad takeaway is pretty simple: Oklahoma State has enough respect around the country to stay in the postseason conversation, and that’s something Morris and his team can build on.
The extra 15 practices would matter to him. The fans would take the extra game and hope it becomes a launch point for what could be a big 2027.
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