The Oklahoma State Cowboys still have a route to the Big 12 Championship Game, but it is razor thin and it starts with one simple requirement: keep winning.
At 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big 12 play, Oklahoma State is tied for third in the league standings after the loss to Iowa State, a defeat that put the Cowboys in chase mode. They no longer control their own fate, but they are not out of the picture yet. With three weeks left, the math says the Cowboys can still get to Arlington - if everything breaks the right way.
The first part is non-negotiable. Oklahoma State has to win its final three games.
There is no realistic scenario in which the Cowboys reach the title game without finishing the regular season 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the Big 12. Even if they beat Arizona State and Kansas, a loss to Texas Tech would end the discussion.
The problem is the crowded 4-2 group around them. Entering Week 11, five teams are sitting at 4-2 in conference play: Oklahoma State, Houston, BYU, Baylor and Arizona.
Of those teams, the only one Oklahoma State has already played is Houston, and that game ended in a 35-32 loss. That matters a lot, because if Houston is part of the tiebreaker mix among the two-loss teams, the Cowboys are in trouble.
In fact, if Oklahoma State finishes with the same record as Houston, the Cowboys have no path. The tiebreakers do not help them there.
That leaves the Cowboys needing the rest of the league to do some heavy lifting. Baylor could end up being a major swing team since the Bears still have games against both BYU and Houston.
If Baylor wins those matchups, it could push both teams to three losses and help Oklahoma State’s case. Arizona also has a key game this weekend against Utah, and a Utah win would hand the Wildcats a third loss, which would also help the Cowboys.
Still, the cleanest path is also the hardest one to pull off: Oklahoma State wins out, Houston loses once, and the other contenders keep stacking wins. Even then, the tiebreakers do not line up well for the Cowboys.
If Oklahoma State, BYU and Arizona all win while Baylor and Houston each lose once, BYU gets the No. 2 seed by winning the tiebreaker over Arizona and then edging Oklahoma State on record against common opponents.
If Oklahoma State, Baylor and Arizona all win while BYU and Houston each lose once, Baylor takes the No. 2 spot on record against common opponents.
And if Baylor beats BYU, Houston beats Baylor, Houston loses once and Arizona wins out, Arizona would get the bid because of its winning percentage against the ninth-place team in the conference standings, which in this case would be Iowa State.
That is why the Cowboys currently cannot win a multi-team tiebreaker, at least not right now.
Two-team tiebreakers are no better. Against Arizona, Oklahoma State does not have the edge based on projected standings tiebreakers. Against Baylor, the answer is the same.
So the situation is straightforward, if not especially encouraging: Oklahoma State has to win out, and the current two-loss teams have to drop at least one game. That is the narrow road to the Big 12 title game.
It is not a comfortable one, but it is still there. And if the Cowboys keep winning and Week 11 brings a few surprises, that road could open up a little more.
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The 66-28 rout of Kansas State was the kind of result that can reset expectations in a hurry, and the offense has been a big reason why. Oklahoma State now ranks third nationally in points scored, a number that suggests this team may be more than just a hot start, even as the top of the FPI stayed unchanged with Notre Dame still at No. 1 after beating Miami. [Read more 🡒]